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Tiger Won't Win This Week

I was flipping around the TV dial last night and stumbled across a Golf Channel segment on Tiger Woods' streak. Mark Rolfing, Tim Rosaforte and some other guy were discussing the streak with Kelly Tilghman. "How long will the streak last?" she asked them.

Two of the panelists said, "as long as it needs too," meaning they think Woods will top Byron Nelson's mark of 11 straight wins. The third one (Rosaforte or Rolfing, don't remember which) said Woods will keep winning through The Masters but might have trouble following that up with a victory at The Players Championship.

Still, it's remarkable to hear people talking about this streak as if it's likely to keep going. Everything in the history of golf says that winning a single golf tournament is very difficult, that winning a couple in a row is extremely unlikely, that winning six or seven straight is almost inconceivable. None of which applies to the here and now - as they say in the stock market ads, past results are no guarantee of future performance.

And golf has never seen a player the caliber of Tiger Woods.

Still, all this talk about how "likely" it is that Tiger will keep winning called out my own streak, my streak of contrarianness. And I am here to predict that Tigers' streak (one of several of this length he's had) ends this week at the CA Championship.

Now, I'll grant you, there's no reason at all to pick this tournament as the place this particular Woods streak ends:


  • Tiger has won 15 of the 28 WGC tournaments played.
  • He's won the CA Championship six times.
  • And he won the last two times at Doral when the tournament played here was the Ford Championshi at Doral, so he has three straight wins at Doral.

All of that - on top of Tiger's current level of play - screams that Woods should win and win easly this week.

And he probably will. Heck, he'll probably win by 10. All I'm going on is a contrarian feeling, and my gut. Which, while it isn't always very accurate, is always very big. And size matters.

Phil Mickelson is going to win the CA Championship. (Crossing fingers: Please, please, please Phil, don't shoot 78 in the first round!)

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you missed one
All those other reasons are great - but you missed one - Bart Bryant isn't in the field this week, and he's been about the only guy not to back down to Tiger's pressure.
"this ball will fit in that fairway"

by courtgolf on Mar 18, 2008 9:47 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

why not?
I was a week off picking Ochoa's first L--it was Mexico rather than Singapore that did her in--for the Pakpickers competition.  So you can at least take pleasure in being the "first" to predict the end of his winning streak.  Has to happen some time, eh?

I just find it funny that I actually take your "contrarian" self-labelling seriously--I'm at a loss for words at how hard it is for me to imagine how he can lose the next two events....

by The Constructivist on Mar 19, 2008 12:08 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

the evidence keeps piling up
yep - no doubt about it - you two have collected enough anecdotal evidence to conclude that Tiger has no chance to win this week...unless he scores lower than anybody else, in which case he will win.

Nostradamus was a wuss !! :-)

"this ball will fit in that fairway"

by courtgolf on Mar 19, 2008 9:59 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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