Open Thread: Will Sergio Win?

by Mulligan Stu on Jul 21, 2007 2:14 PM EDT

Here's an Open Thread on the Open Championship. Talk about anything British Open, but I'll throw out two questions in particular to consider:

Will Sergio Garcia finally win his first major on Sunday?
Who has the best chance to emerge from the pack to beat him (and everyone else)?

My answers: 1. Yes; 2. Ernie Els.

Garcia birdied the first hole on Saturday, but over the new few holes hit some very shaky shots, losing drivers and irons to the right. But he didn't lose his cool. He kept his head, didn't give away strokes, and straightened things out within a few holes.

As I wrote a couple days ago, I think the belly putter is getting too much attention. Fact is, Garcia's putting was vastly improved this year before he switched to the belly putter. But if the implement gives him some help with his confidence down the stretch, then all hail the belly putter.

Plus, I look at Garcia's sitation this way: He's really got a six shot lead. There's one guy three strokes behind. Steve Stricker. Stricker is a fine player and is certainly capable of winning on Sunday. But he's not a guy who's going to scare Garcia.

The players who might put a scare into Garcia - who might cause him to be nervous by their mere presence on the leaderboard - are all at least six srokes back.

So I think Sergio wins it tomorrow.

As to the second question, Els closed with a 65 on Sunday last week, and he got a few lucky breaks today. So I see him feeling pretty sprightly going into tomorrow's round.

If I'm wrong about Garcia and he falls apart like he has in some recent major championship final rounds, then Ernie and quite a few others are in good positions.

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Comments

tiger tiger!

tiger's gonna win this thing. seriously. i mean it. this is where he comes from way back to fill in the last part of his legend. this is the come from behind sunday charge. sergio is gonna fold like a cheap tent, and everyone will start backsliding once they see tiger climbing up the leaderboard with his final round 64.

"Not even God can hit a 1-iron." - Lee Trevino

by 1ironCharlie on Jul 21, 2007 2:18 PM EDT reply actions

sergio

i've got a question to pose: if sergio actually hangs on and wins a major, how big a jerk will he be then? because he's a pretty big jerk now without a major

by tuffyrhodes on Jul 21, 2007 5:30 PM EDT reply actions

alas ...

Unfortunately, I think you're right. I'm not a huge fan of Sergio, but I have great respect for his talent. There are others on the leaderboard I'd rather see win, but it certainly will be well-earned by Sergio if he pulls it off.

by bogeymcduff on Jul 21, 2007 5:36 PM EDT reply actions

this is Carnoustie, right?

is any lead safe at Carnoustie? Sergio's finally in great position to win a major, but someone among those chasing him is likely to put a good round together, and Open Sunday pressure is a thing of beauty. by the way, what's the weather going to be like Sunday? and is anyone as psyched as me that Ai Miyazato just has to beat Maria Hjorth tomorrow to play either Mi Hyun Kim or Seon Hwa Lee in the HSBC Women's World Match Play Championship? More to the point, will anyone be watching it?

by The Constructivist on Jul 21, 2007 5:59 PM EDT reply actions

I can answer both your questions

No, no one is as psyched as you.
No, no one will be watching.

But seriously (well, No. 2 is probably correct), I'd love to see Miyazato in the final, and as the champion. Be great if she can get that first win out of the way.

by Mulligan Stu on Jul 21, 2007 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Yep, Sergio's got it ...

Carnasty ain't that nasty this year, really. I don't believe the narrative that 'experience' means everything in the majors - if anyone puts pressure on Sergio tomorrow he could melt, regardless of the guy's name. But it's a helluva lot harder to put pressure on a guy that has a 3-stroke lead, and up til this point hasn't folded whatsoever. I'm actually very surprised at that - I thought Sergio was going to have a meltdown today and he didn't. He can really play defensive tomorrow and it's all over.

Tiger shot himself out of it on Friday. No chance for him, my friends. I wish I was wrong, I really want to see him break Nicklaus' record. But he's not going to do it tomorrow.

by Shank You very much on Jul 21, 2007 8:57 PM EDT reply actions