The Stats Project, Volume 2: Tight Pin Ratio
If you ever get the chance when you go to a tour event, get a copy of the pin sheet. It'll tell you for each round how many paces on and from the side a certain pin is. It's measured in paces, but basically is yards. Often times, the pins are really tight when the money is made.
It's important to be able to measure how close a player gets relative to the pin position, not to the hole. Certain pins are more confusing or intimidating than others, so making a comparison of being six feet away from the hole isn't necessarily meaningful. Hence, a comparison against the pin and the field playing that specific pin might help.
Enter: Tight Pin Ratio
The idea is basically to perform a ratio comparison between the space around the pin - paces on and away - with the circle that would be drawn through the ball, centered around the pin.
Obviously, the closer the ratio is to zero is better because you are in a closer space. This stat doesn't account for whether a player goes long or short of the pin, but studies indicate that positioning does not traditionally matter.
But being able to hit it close to the pin doesn't mean anything if you can't roll it. That's the whole point of this statistic. If a player can stick it close, but can't convert inside of 15 feet, then they won't win. Conversely, players that drain one or two bombs per week might just do enough to win a tournament. While those bombs are way more rare than fans root for, with proper timing, they can be huge game changers.
The idea with Tight Pin Ratio is to show who's putting it close AND on the putting surface. Coupled with other stats, we can build the profile of a complete player.
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Damn it !! All these years I’ve been counting my score all the way to the hole. Now I only have to get in the relative proximity of the hole ? Geez – thanks RB !! :-D
I’ve read this three times and I still don’t see the point of having a statistic like this. If he’s on the green, he’s on the green. If he’s not, he’s not. How will this information be used ?
"this ball will fit in that fairway"
But being on the green doesn’t really mean anything. You could three-jack it from 5 feet, or 50 feet all the same. This is kind of more a stat about how a hole is playing for the field. Those “nasty”/“inaccessible” pins we always hear about on TV – well how inaccessible are they really?
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by Ryan Ballengee on Sep 1, 2010 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Still not following. This stat still doesn’t seem to make much difference without the topography of the green. You can be inside of a foot and run it by three or four feet if you’re on the wrong side of the hole – but missing this proxmity stat 15 feet below the hole with a straight putt puts you in a negative position statistically, but in a better position to make the putt or have an easy second putt.
"this ball will fit in that fairway"
That’s actually a lie. Studies have shown that it doesn’t matter the topographical position of the ball relative to the cup. Players make putts at approximately the same rate from above or below the hole.
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by Ryan Ballengee on Sep 2, 2010 9:26 AM EDT up reply actions
you’re trying to tell me that players are going to make a downhill left to right slider just as often as they make a straight uphil putt ?
"this ball will fit in that fairway"
I agree with you court
not a chance in hell…every golfer knows a uphiller is holed out far more often. This is a case of stats gone mad.
I’m telling you what statistics from a long-term study indicate. Just like I would tell you that you have an advantage over the house in blackjack over the long-term. Seems kinda untrue, but stats don’t lie on this one.
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by Ryan Ballengee on Sep 2, 2010 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m saying in this case they don’t lie. I know they can though.
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by Ryan Ballengee on Sep 3, 2010 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions
“what would you rather have…a 10 foot uphill putt or a 5 foot downhill putt ?”
Given the same amount break, you’d rather have the five footer. Closer is better.
by rexfordbuzzsaw on Sep 3, 2010 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions
“NOT SO, Mr Starter !!” (a favorite line from “Chariots of Fire” – downhill putts require a lot of touch. It also depends on the grade you’re dealing with. There are a lot of downhill puts from even a foot, if you just barely get it started and miss the hole, you can be 20 feet away.
The angle of the downhill is another shortcoming of this stat. (which is why I mentioned topography earlier)
"this ball will fit in that fairway"
Thus my all-caps SHOULD.
But some short downhillers can indeed be treacherous.
As can some commenters. (J/K)
by TXQ on Sep 3, 2010 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions
So you aim your approach shots farther from the pin, no?
by TXQ on Sep 3, 2010 2:17 PM EDT up reply actions
My approach shots to the green are my Achilles Heel
but I don’t mentally concede just because my opponent has a shorter putt.
Consider yourself lucky, Wendy,
if you’ve got only one achilles heel.
I’ve got eleven, so far.
(I also walk funny.)
by TXQ on Sep 3, 2010 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Then why do pros fear the downhill putt at Augusta ?
They take the uphiller every time. Jack used to ensure he finished on the low side when lagging for that very reason. And by the way…you should know there is less break up hill…you can be more aggressive with the putt. Closer is better on flat greens…not many of them about.
I hear ya, Wendy. I'm working on a pie chart that shows what percentage of people like
pies.
I’ll let ya know when it’s done.
by TXQ on Sep 1, 2010 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Do we get to vote on what kind of pie?
Fresh strawberry please.
I write about golf at www.tees2greens.com, too.
This applies to flat greens..
are there any on tour ? Sometimes a shot to 20 feet , leaving an uphill putt is better than a downhill breaker from 5 feet…this is a waste of energy.
That’s ok, Wendy, just skip over these and wait for the next one.
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by Ryan Ballengee on Sep 2, 2010 9:26 AM EDT up reply actions
That’s all I can ask for, haha.
Find me! Email: ryan@thegolfnewsnet.com, Twitter: http://twitter.com/waggleroom, or Facebook: http://facebook.com/waggleroom.
by Ryan Ballengee on Sep 2, 2010 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions
"That’s ok, Wendy, just skip over these and wait for the next one."
That’s a crazy idea, Ryan, but it just might work.
by TXQ on Sep 2, 2010 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions
This is a great idea for a third-order stat. Undoubtedly a 30 yard pitch with 27 yards of green to work with has a higher expected remaining shot value than a 30 yard pitch with 5 yards of green to work with. This would be helpful in adjusting proximity to the hole to make more x factors equal across all players attempts.
Unfortunately, before we get there, we still need good second order stats(and first order if people really think Edoardo Molinari is better than Paul Casey).
This is definitely a niche stat, much deeper, but needs more data in front of it to help put it into appropriate context.
Find me! Email: ryan@thegolfnewsnet.com, Twitter: http://twitter.com/waggleroom, or Facebook: http://facebook.com/waggleroom.
by Ryan Ballengee on Sep 2, 2010 9:25 AM EDT up reply actions

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