The Threat from Europe to the PGA Tour Is Real in 2010

We are now 25 weeks into the 2010 PGA Tour season, and the Americans are beating the rest of the world 13-12 in non-opposite field events.  (Americans have won both opposite field events, so that would make it 15-12.) While critics - mostly very casual observers - throw barbs about the lack of American names etched on LPGA trophies in 2010, it might be time to take a look at how things are changing on the PGA Tour.

Bubba Watson's win on Sunday at the Travelers gave the Yankees the edge and ended a streak of three straight European winners on the PGA Tour.  American players dominated the first six weeks of the Tour season, winning five in a row after Geoff Ogilvy took the SBS Championship.  They also owned the Tour just before and just after the Masters for a total of a four week winning streak. 

London resident (for this exercise) Ernie Els almost single-handedly kept the foreigners on the board in March.  Since Jason Bohn's win in NOLA, though, the anti-Yanks have dominated.  Starting with Rory McIlroy's win in Charlotte, foreign-born winners have taken seven of the last nine PGA Tour events.  In that same nine event span, six wins were by first-time champions.  For Lee Westwood, his win in Memphis may as well have been his first since the original was twelve years prior. 

It could be complete coincidence that the Europeans (almost all) just happen to all be first-timers here in the States, but maybe this run symbolizes a transition of power in golf back to the Old World in a tangible way. Of the twelve American wins this season, only three were by first-time winners.  Against the five European wins in 2010, all were first-timers.  That may say something about the depth of youth on the European bench compared to the Americans.  It is particularly astounding to see in a Ryder Cup year. 

Only three Americans with one career Tour win or less are in the top fifteen in Corey Pavin's rankings - Bubba Watson, the phenom Rickie Fowler, and winless Ricky Barnes, whose consistency has been impressive in 2010.  They are all between 11 and 14.  In one sense, it could be calming for the Americans to know that older talent is still making the team.  On the other hand, it could be frightening that the most prolific American young player, Anthony Kim, is on the sideline with a hand injury.  The other bright young gun, Dustin Johnson, just caved at the National Open.

The names etched on trophies tell a lot more than than the sentiment in '08 and '09 that the Europeans were gaining in the Official World Golf Rankings. The point scale is biased against Americans, and favors the European and Asian Tours, as well as IMG, who founded the rankings nearly twenty-five years ago. But, in their prevalence, they make the AT&T National look bad this week because there is only one player in the top twenty that it is in the field. 

Despite that, some fairly strong names are going to play at Aronimink.  Still, as the OWGR as self-fulfilling and enforcing, the winner of the AT&T National will not see the same kind of benefit as they would with a more equitable system.  The rankings, though, can be shed for this season because Europeans are consistently raising big checks each Sunday.

Clearly, the Americans are still the predominant country on the PGA Tour.  Compared to the LPGA Tour in 2010, where just a lone American has carried the flag to the winner's circle, the conversation may even seem ridiculous.  Looking at the last nine weeks, though, it is hard not to wonder when and where the American golf youth will pop their winning cherries.