Fantasy Crystal Ball: Shell Houston Open

This week is the Shell Houston Open and the final tune up for the first major of the year in a town called Augusta.  Houston's PGA Tour stop has seen a resurgence in recent years as tournament organizers have worked to setup host course Redstone GC as close to Augusta National as possible.  The tactic has worked in bringing better quality players into Humble, Texas, before the Masters.

The increased quality of field in Houston has created difficulties for Americans seeking to win this long-running Tour event.  A foreigner has won the last seven playings of this championship.  It makes sense, then, to ride that streak.  It also makes sense to break my streak of picking the prior week's winner.  The last two decades at the Masters suggests that the winner is more likely to miss the cut or not play at all the week prior to the masters than do well.  If Ernie Els and Fred Couples are truly favorites at Augusta, then I can't have them on my team.

On the A-list, it is slim pickin's give my conditions.  Vijay Singh is a former champion in Houston (three times over) and is finally starting to play like a guy fully recovered from knee surgery.  Meanwhile, my dark horse for the week is Martin Laird.

Moving along to the B-list, I like Geoff Ogilvy this week.  He is quite a student of the majors and had his best ever finish at the Masters last year (T15).  If he seeks to improve on that next week, he will work hard to do that this week.

Hunter Mahan continues to impress me and could be a real sleeper pick for the Masters.  (You heard it here first.)  Lee Westwood's game has never been better and could well be riding his last American road trip with Billy Foster on the bag.  Maybe that'll inspire an extra sense of purpose.

Fran Quinn has won on the Nationwide Tour this year and has done half decently in his PGA Tour starts.  He is worth a seat on the bench if you like winners.  I'm feeling the same about Ben Curtis, who seems to make it his habit to show up near the top of one major leaderboard per year.  Seemingly finding form at Bay Hill, I like him to continue this week.

Paul Casey will be starting for me off of the C-list because he is defending champion.  And, as I said on Fox Sports 1340 AM in New Mexico today, he could be finding his game and health just in time.

In the spirit of the 2008 winner in this tournament, I have to pick a potential absolutely random winner.  I'm going for Brett Wetterich.  Coming back off of injury, having not made the cut in either of his starts this season, he just screams Johnson Wagner to me.