Why Fred & Ernie Should Take A Dive This Week in Houston

I’m having trouble following the chart. This looks like Cabrera played the two weeks prior to his Masters win, and Immelman played the week before.

I must be having a brain fart – this can’t be as difficult as I’m making it.

Ryan cuts it off at 1989. One year before Sandy Lyle won the Masters the week after he won in Greensborowhich was played the week before.

Then if you really look at the numbers, it says 2 of the last 8 Masters Champions or 25% who played the week before the Masters, have won that particular tournament. I make a bet that’s a higher percentage than all the rest of the tour. Want to have a friendly $20 wager Ryan? I’m a little surprised you bring this up, because I said to a previous and similar post of yours that this theory of yours is very likely wrong.

How Match Play Winners Fare in Their Next Start Where Ryan’s stats showed two of the last seven match play winners won their next tournament.

And I replied-

Players winning back to back starts is not a common event. It’s actually happened 2 times in the last 7 tournaments is pretty good.

IF you take the Tiger factor out of this tournament and study it against 10 random tournaments, I’d make a bet players winning in their next stop is one in 10 or less.

Ryan above says logic isn’t needed, just facts. I’ll add analysis is needed or the facts/statistics can be misconstrued to mean just about anything.

Golf is golf fella’s. It ain’t baseball, so statistical avgs don’t count for much. If Tiger were playin Houston,, and won,….. I guarantee, his odds of winning Augusta would not be diminished. With that in mind, is everyone aware that Freddie is -77 under par over his last 12 rounds ! "SEVENTY-FREAKIN’-SEVEN ! ! ! "Sure, thats Champions Tour courses and not like Augusta. However, he’s still plenty long and his ball striking is legendary. It’s his putting that has all of a sudden become rock solid. Can he win at Augusta ? Hey, I can go a whole year and not make 77 birdies ! ! !,…maybe even 2 years. LOL. Seriously, Ernie is playin’ great, but Freddie is the hottest player on the planet. He’s got a real good shot at it.. So does Ernie. Phil,…I said last fall that the new grooves would be a Mickelson killer and they are. He simply doesn’t hit enough fairways. He was #1 last week in putting for GIR. But nearly last in FW’s hit. Unless he can hit 60-65% at Augusta, he’s got no chance. IMO………………Z.

William Hill’s odds have Freddie at 100-1 ! It’s a no brainer,….put a hundred on Freddie. It’s a $10,000 payday should he come through. Just sayin’ Freddies playin’ way better than 100-1 . IMO Put a little “mad” money down before the odds drop. Ya never know. I’m down……………………..Z.

Having looked at results on the LPGA backwards and forwards, I’ve arrived at a short list of conclusions on figuring out “who is going to win this week”:

1) the stronger the field, the less likely a no-name will win
2) very few tournament winners missed the cut in their previous event
3) most tournament winners played reasonably well in their previous event but did not necessarily finish even in the top 20
3) prior history on a course often doesn’t hold true because the player is performing at different levels every time this event comes up on the schedule
4) never bet on last week’s winner to win this week because everybody else is betting on it

You can find many examples that contradict each of these but they seem to hold true more often than more other axioms I’ve followed.

Just to let everyone know, I’ve banned Bill. But, I don’t want to remove his argument, so I am moving his TOS violating posts to here.

The first::

rnie I did some preliminary number crunching using the 1990’s.

How many times did players win back to back weeks- 10 times

They were

Hale Irwin 1990

Billy Andrade 91

Davis Love 92

Nick Price and David Frost 93

Peter Jacobsen 95

Mark O’Meara and Ernie Els 97

David Duval and Tiger Woods 1999

10 times in a decade when tournaments a year numbered in the 40’s. Statistically we’re talking

The Masters is one in 20.

Westchester was a popular site for back to back winners in the 90’s. Els, Irwin, and Andrade all had that tournament in their streaks.

The 2000’s

00- Begay and Woods

01- Woods

03- Els

04- Singh twice

05- Mickelson

06- Mickelson and Woods

07- Woods

08- Singh

or 12 times in the past decade. 22 times in 800+ tournaments or 1 in 37 TO 40. The Masters is 1 in 20 and I didn’t even look to check for winners the week after the Masters.

No one in the last 20 years has won the week after winning the Masters. Off the top of my head, I think the last person to do it is Bernhard Langer in 1985. Gary Player did it in 1978.

A Masters Champion putting back to wins has happened at the rate of 1 in 40, approximately the average for the whole rest of the tour. Ryan’s conclusion-

    The logic says, though, that both should withdraw this week if they want to win the Masters.

Just isn’t supported by the facts. Ryan said ‘Don’t need logic. Only need facts’. The facts don’t support his conclusion.

And the second:

All Masters Champions to have won the week before the tournament.

    Phil Mickelson 2006

    Sandy Lyle 1988

    Art Wll 1959

    Sam Snead 1949

    Ralph Gulhlahl 1939

That makes 5 times in a little over 70 Masters or a 1 in 14 chance.

Lets see Ryan wiggle his way out of this one. His superficial knee jerk research is dead wrong. I need to type thirteen more words to make this legally a fan post.

Sorry Ryan, I’m just a dumb ass golf pro. lol

 What’s a TOS violation ? (Somethin’ akin to “screwing the pooch” ?)………..Z