A Good Example of Bad Course Management
by Adam Fonseca on Mar 1, 2010 3:33 PM EST
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Would you guess possibly 230 yards? Could your average, run-of-the-mill, Everyday Joe Pro Golfer hit a 3 iron from a perfect lie 230 yards? Now how about that same shot into a par 5 with adrenaline pumping through your veins and all you need is birdie to put yourself into a great position to win a PGA Tournament?
That is the exact situation that Rickie Fowler found himself in Sunday on the 15th hole at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. And, as the Golf Channel's Rich Learner writes, choosing to instead lay-up on the hole only to eventually miss the green on his third shot proved to be the turning point in Fowler's round:
The kid who looks like he could stand in the pocket and just rifle it on a line 45 yards down field dumped it to his safety valve who then got flattened by the free safety. Rickie Fowler laid up at No. 15 with just 210 yards to clear the water, 230 to the front and the easiest hole-location of the week on the par 5 that kicks off a thrilling finishing stretch. It was a stock 3-iron, maybe a humped up 4.Fowler goes on to explain his thinking after the round and after losing to Hunter Mahan for the tournament title
“If I was a few back I may have gone for it,” he told Steve Sands after the round. It also must be pointed out that Fowler failed to go for the green in 2 on Saturday from a similar distance. He also made par. If you hit it in the water, and the same goes for Michael Sim and Tim Clark and Bubba Watson, all of whom laid up with nothing to show for it earlier this year, you man up and tell the press, “I was trying to win the golf tournament.” Who’s going to argue with that? “The tournament’s not won on 15,” Fowler added.You're right Rickie. The tournament isn't won on 15. However, you were also not being asked to hit an amazing golf shot, certainly not by PGA Professional standards at least. Especially if you had ball in hand, and especially with the easiest pin placement of the week.
Don't tell me that Mark Calcavecchia is more of a man than you, Rickie.
(Note: Calc made it in two)
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you do realize that you shoot your argument in just about every vital organ when you quote Rich Lerner, don’t you ? :-)
second guessing one shot is a useless an exercise – especially as a comparison to what other players who had nothing to lose did with their shots.
Fowler did what he did because he believed it gave him the best chance to make birdie – it just didn’t go the right way for him.
"this ball will fit in that fairway"
flawed/failed
or, good decision, bad execution…
let’s see some stats instead of thinking with our guts, here (or other parts of our bodies)….
by The Constructivist on Mar 1, 2010 10:56 PM EST reply actions
Phil anywhere. He’s a gambler…and that has cost him a lot of wins, but has earned him a lot, too. It’s just who he is. Remember the shot through the trees at Colonial a year or two ago ? Phenomenal.
I don’t think he considers those shots “gambles”. The guy just has supreme confidence in his shot making ability – no matter what anybody thinks.
"this ball will fit in that fairway"
Why would
any of us be SECOND GUESSING what the kid did on 15? Are we touring pros, or even close to it?….good course management is the main key to winning…if you don’t think so, just as Jack….he set his game plan for the week, and never varied…and the results???…apply that to your own games….yea, I thought so….let the kid alone, he’ll be just fine and do his share of winning….and as for all those hoping for the next GREAT WHITE HOPE get a grip….STUB
As usual, Bruce is right, so let's
look at the numbers. (from Rickie’s PGAtour.com stats)
Number 15 played to a scoring average of 4.74 strokes and was the 15th hardest hole.
First off, in 2010, Rickie’s average drive is 290 yards placing him 21st in driving distance. (So, court, Tiger and Phil are NOT way longer than Fowler). He hit that drive on the 15th hole Sunday 305 yards.
That left him 230 yards from the pin (as the crow flies). From 200+ yards out, Rickie gets on the green 51.72% of the time (49th on tour) and when he does get it on from 225-250 yards he leaves himself an average putt of 64’5". In the three putt avoidance category, Rickie is one of the very worst at 187th place.
Instead, he laid up hitting an iron about 148 yards and leaving himself exactly 82 yards to the pin. From that distance, he ranks 24th on tour and leaves himself an average putt of 11’8".
On all putts between 10-15’, Fowler makes 21.95% of them and that ranks him 148th in that category.
Statistics did not look good for him to make birdie either way. Had Rickie known how bad these stats were, he may have purposely played the ball into the hazard and then tried to chip in for birdie from the circled drop area.
I'll keep an eye out for you...at www.oneeyedgolfer.blogspot.com
by One-Eyed Golfer Guy on Mar 2, 2010 3:33 PM EST reply actions
Good stuff there !
I’m going to stand by Tiger and Phil being a lot longer than Fowler – especially with the irons. Fowler would have needed at least a 3-iron to reach that green – 4-iron would have been uncomfortably close to the water. Woods and Mickelson…5 or even 6 iron to the flag. Off the tee, Woods and Mickelson’s driving stats get skewed because they hit 3-woods and irons off of so many tees.
"this ball will fit in that fairway"
court, the PGA tour only use two drives
per round for stat purposes. They use driving holes, not doglegs, short par fours, layups, etc. Here is the disclaimer from their site: The average number of yards per measured drive. These drives are measured on two holes per round. Care is taken to select two holes which face in opposite directions to counteract the effect of wind. Drives are measured to the point at which they come to rest regardless of whether they are in the fairway or not.
I am sure it is a rare circumstance where players use irons or fairway woods on these two holes…
I'll keep an eye out for you...at www.oneeyedgolfer.blogspot.com
by One-Eyed Golfer Guy on Mar 3, 2010 7:56 AM EST reply actions
OEG - it may be irrelevant to CG
but it was news to me about the PGA stats. on drives. Plus the fact that the ball doesn’t have to be on the fairway. Whenever we have prizes for “longest drive”, it is key that the ball is on the fairway. ( I have managed to win a couple of times on specified holes when all the bombers have gone into the rough).
W...there are
different criteria used in club competitions vs tour events…the clubs set local rules for the members….STUB
Agreed - but I was still surprised
that a) only measured over 2 holes, and b) drives didn’t have to be on the fairway. Did you know that fact?
Finally a blog right on
Yeah, you’ve got it right on. There really is no good argument that Fowler laid up, save the fact he was nervous. All legit golfers have been in a situation like that, and the only reason they wouldn’t attempt that shot is because they have nerves, or don’t have the balls. No tour player would ever really layup from 230 yards to 80 yards, because that’s where they’re the best from. Well, maybe Corey Pavin or Willie Wood would do that.
Great article
The 10th at the Belfry is a good example.
Most pros today would go for it. Seve first drove that green in ‘78. Nick Faldo would always lay up on that hole..he felt going for the green didn’t suit him…end of.
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