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Michelle Wie Is Not the Best Player on the LPGA With 1 Win

My 2010 preview series continues at Mostly Harmless with a look at the best on the LPGA with a single win.  Here are the players who I think have the best chance to make their 1st wins a little less lonely in 2010.  And, yes, once again I'm ranking my favorite player ahead of Michelle Wie.

Most Likely to Win in 2010

1. Ai Miyazato: I've said it before and I'll say it again: she gave herself 13 chances to win on the LPGA and JLPGA in 2009, but could close the deal only at the Evian Masters (her 1st, obviously) and Sankyo Ladies (her 15th). So last season's #4-ranked LPGA player and #6-ranked JLPGA player is one of my frontrunners for LPGA Player of the Year in 2010. Yup, I'm expecting multiple wins from her on the LPGA this coming season. More on that a little later.

2. Michelle Wie: According to Hound Dog, she was part of the 2nd-greatest collective rookie season in LPGA history (behind Ai-sama's '06ers) and had an ROY-quality year--good enough for 12th on his list of all-time individual rookie performances on the LPGA. I'm hoping her Stanford professors let her golf in Asia next month, despite her 20-credit course load this term. Like everyone else, I'd love to see her play as full a schedule as possible in 2010. Even on a limited schedule in 2009, she ended up #11 on my final Best of the LPGA ranking. So it ahould be no surprise that she's another one of my frontrunners for POY this coming season.

For the rest of the contenders on the list, including Natalie Gulbis, check out the full article after the jump.

Star-divide

The Contenders

3. Jee Young Lee: She's coming off her worst year in her 4 as an LPGA member following her non-member win in Korea in 2005, but she finally seemed to be on the comeback trail at its end, finishing 2009 with 3-straight top 20s and ending up #33 on my Best of the LPGA ranking. There's only 1 direction she can move in 2010. There's no way a player of her caliber has 2 bad seasons in a row.

4. Momoko Ueda: She won the 2007 Mizuno Classic as a JLPGA member and she did it with a bang--a final-round double eagle. Since then, she's brought her victory total on the JLPGA to 8, but has only cracked the top 10 as an LPGA member 5 times in 37 starts. So why do I rank her so high here? Well, she got 2 of them in the 2nd half of 2009, when the work she'd been putting into her game over the previous season and a half finally started to pay off. I'm looking for a huge 2010 from her.

5. Inbee Park: She seems to have slogged her way through her U.S. Women's Open jinx (see #25 and #26, below), having played well in Asia at the end of 2009 (T7 in Korea, T5 in Japan, T2 at JLPGA Q-School). If she plays her scheduling cards as well in 2010, she can build momentum on the JLPGA and improve on her #5 standing in her rookie class ('07ers) and #14 standing in her generation (Young Guns). I definitely expect her to improve on her #52 standing on my Best of the LPGA ranking.

6. Katherine Hull: In 2009, she showed that her hot streak at the end of 2008, jumpstarted by her win at the Canadian Women's Open, was a true quantum leap, making the top 30 on the money list and keeping her scoring average in the mid-71s for the 2nd-straight season. I'm looking for her to add to her total of 18 career LPGA top 10s in a big way in 2010, particularly if she augments her 7 ALPG wins at home Down Under in the next few weeks. She finished 2009 ranked #27 on my Best of the LPGA ranking and I don't see her going any lower in 2010.

7. Natalie Gulbis: Recurring back problems since her 2007 Evian Masters playoff victory over Jeong Jang have dropped her back where she was in her 1st 3 seasons on the LPGA--a player who makes her share of cuts but has trouble cracking the top 10. In fact, 24 of her top 10s and all 7 of her top 3s came between 2005 and 2007, when she was a regular on the top 20 of the money list. If she can stay healthy this coming season, there's no reason she can't get back to that level. Yes, that's a big "if," but she's coming off a season where she brought her scoring average back in the low 71s and--even though she had to shut things down when her back started acting up again in October and November--still ended up #30 in my final Best of the LPGA ranking. So I'm actually optimistic for her in 2010.

8. Nicole Castrale: Her 2 Solheim Cup appearances and playoff win at the Ginn Tribute in 2007 pushed me to give her the benefit of the doubt and rank her in this category, but she'll need to work very hard in 2010 to bounce back from a very disappointing 2009, when she missed 10 cuts, saw her scoring average approach 72.50, fell outside the top 50 on the money list, and only managed to get her 19th and 20th career top 10s on the LPGA. Still, I'd be very surprised to see her end up in 2010 as low as she ended up in last year's final Best of the LPGA ranking (#54).

FanPosts are written by Waggle Room members. Viewpoints expressed do not necessarily reflect those of WaggleRoom.com and its editor, Ryan Ballengee. The Waggle Room member whose byline appears with the FanPost is solely responsible for its content.

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Many thanks for putting Miyazato ahead of Wie on the list. Wie had two chances to win last year – missed one – made one. The rest was smoke and mirrors.

What has happened to Momoko Ueda ? She looked like a sure thing her rookie year. I figured her to be a perennial top 10 or even top 5, but she hasn’t gotten her spark back.

How the heck did Natalie Gulbis make this list ? If it’s purely window dressing, fine, but her game hasn’t gotten any better, and the back problems you mentioned just don’t seem to want to go away.

"this ball will fit in that fairway"

by courtgolf on Jan 12, 2010 11:26 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

there's no doubt Gulbis is a contender

I make it my business never to count out someone who broke the $1M barrier in season winnings on the LPGA, particularly when her scoring average starts drifting downward again. The LPGA’s lighter schedule in 2010 will work to her favor, as well.

Wie was not smoke and mirrors in the 2nd half of 2010. She started playing even tighter, shorter courses better well before her breakthrough win, and even before her Solheim Cup heroics. She was actually more consistent overall than Anna Nordqvist, at least when it came to getting top 20s. Hound Dog rated her rookie season better than Na Yeon Choi’s and better than many who actually won Rookie of the Year, which is pretty impressive company. I see her having a great 2010, actually….

I think Ueda’s time will come. There’s just more of a learning curve when it comes to translating JLPGA success into LPGA success for the top Japanese players than there seems to be for the top Europeans who come over from the LET. Her key performance stats are much better in her sophomore than rookie season, so if she plays well enough on the LPGA in the 1st half of the season to want to finally play a full schedule there in 2010, I see her as a top 20 player. But I’m getting ahead of myself—my predictions are still 2 weeks away!

by The Constructivist on Jan 12, 2010 12:07 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

But Gulbis was #40 on the money list last year. She has topped that million dollar mark once in her career and that was 5 years ago.

Wie’s top 10’s were from spots out of contention. Check her Sunday scores.

I’m hoping Choi has a big year – watching her swing is poetry.

Hope you’re right on Ueda. That’s a LOAD of talent.

"this ball will fit in that fairway"

by courtgolf on Jan 12, 2010 12:21 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Construct,

you seem to have a handle on things other than Gulbis…her game (never mind her back problems) just doesn’t match up to a top tier player…Tell Court again, how you think the Big Wieze is going to do, he doesn’t seem to understand when I do…I have told him repeatedly, this is the year of the BIG WIEZE and to get his bets down…I think there is going to be a real diverse leader board this year just due to all the traveling that will be necessary due to the short stack of the LPGA…I think the LET and JLPGA may be very busy places, and that jumping back and forth may well take it’s toll…STUB

by thinker on Jan 12, 2010 12:27 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

short hitters got no reason to contend?

I don’t understand the anti-Natalie sentiment here. Look at her stats from last season. There are plenty of courses that favor precision players. You don’t need to be a top tier player to win once, or even twice, on the LPGA (my list of 2-timers, I mean 2-time winners, comes out at midnight, so you’ll see what I mean).

Here’s another way to look at it: who would you put ahead of Natalie? Certainly not Castrale, right? Well, check out the rest of the list over at my place. I can see demoting Natalie and Nicole out of the contenders category, but not putting anyone ahead of them as more likely to win in 2010.

by The Constructivist on Jan 12, 2010 2:20 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

it’s not anti-Natalie – it’s just a disagreement with her placement on the list. LOVE Natalie – love looking at Natalie – loved talking with Natalie…ok, the reality show, not so much…and the swing is still goofy and probably caused the back problems – but there wasn’t any anti-Natalie sentiment. All the best to her – but I’m not going to hold my breath on a second win with all the other talent on tour. I don’t even know if winning is a big priority for her. She makes good money as a player, but it’s just a drop in the bucket compared to her other business concerns. Golf helps put her name and face in front of businesses that have made her a very wealthy woman – more power to her – but I don’t think she is driven to win like she used to be. And I still don’t understand why she stopped using the Hammy putter. She was lights out with it.

"this ball will fit in that fairway"

by courtgolf on Jan 12, 2010 2:31 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

A player on the pro tour that cannot drive with length and accuracy is going to have a smaller margin of error in the rest of their game. Golf, for better or for worse, is now a power game and has been for some time.

I don’t think that Court was disrespecting Natalie Gulbis when he pointed out that, ahem, shortcoming.

by Old Man Par on Jan 12, 2010 2:48 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

OK, OK

I was wrong to call it anti-Natalie sentiment. But y’all are avoiding facts here. Check out her recent driving stats and winnings:

2009 249.3, .743, $326.4K (21)
2008 240.7, .668, $266.2K (20)
2007 246.3, .687, $886.4K (22)
2006 252.1, .729, $694.0K (26)
2005 252.9, .749, $1.01M (27)
2004 261.0, .689, $277.1K (27)

When Natalie’s healthy, she’s of average length off the tee. Her win at Evian is the main difference-maker between her 2007 and her last 2 seasons in terms of winnings. The reason why I’m optimistic for 2010 for her is that her length and accuracy in 2009 improved to 2005-2006 levels. If she can take advantage by getting her greens in regulation rate back to where it was in 2006 (.721) and 2005 (.709), she can have a breakout season, the way she putts.

Think about it: Ai Miyazato suffered a minor leg injury after the ‘06 Women’s World Match Play Championship (where she lost to Seon Hwa Lee in the finals) and developed swing and confidence problems for the next year. She distrusted her driver so much she was hitting 3-wood off the tee and still not hitting many fairways. Even though she started to come back in the 2nd half of 2008, she ended the year ranked #41 in my system. We all know what she did in 2009. Well, check out her driving stats:

http://www.lpga.com/greensheet.aspx?pid=5428&year=2009

(scroll down to the bottom of the page)

OK, I’m not going to be predicting a top 5 finish for Natalie in 2010, but Ai-sama’s a great example of how someone can start attacking courses again when they’re healthy and their driver’s working for them.

by The Constructivist on Jan 13, 2010 1:13 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

hey – solid facts – hope you’re right….or better…hope you’re wrong and find out that she should’ve been higher up and we might see her in the winner’s circle. Can you really get too much Natalie during a tournament ? :-)

"this ball will fit in that fairway"

by courtgolf on Jan 13, 2010 1:19 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

the answer is no!

And check out some frankenstat-based rankings from one of Hound Dog’s regulars:

http://www.hounddoglpga.com/2010/1/13/1249249/player-rankings-by-frankenstats

The only bigger surprise than how high Natalie ranks on his list is how high Paige Mackenzie does.

by The Constructivist on Jan 14, 2010 1:55 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Construct.

why no Korean players on the list…if we’re talking about shorter hitters getting equal time,, take your pick….My gawd Court…it happend so fast, …that flash before my eyes…Did you and I agree on something??…STUB

by thinker on Jan 12, 2010 2:48 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I promise not to tell anybody

"this ball will fit in that fairway"

by courtgolf on Jan 12, 2010 2:51 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

think again, thinker

Not all Koreans are short hitters. Wie’s of Korean descent and a little longer than Jee Young Lee, who shares her accuracy problems. Inbee Park’s of average length, which is too bad for her, b/c she’s not that accurate off the tee, either.

On my longer list, there are 9 more Koreans, not all of whom are precision players, either.

by The Constructivist on Jan 13, 2010 1:16 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

hey – Wie’s been eating All American Wheaties all her life ! She’s not 100% Korean with all those good grains. :-)

by the way – whatever happened to all the media hype of Wie averaging 300 yards off the tee ?

"this ball will fit in that fairway"

by courtgolf on Jan 13, 2010 1:22 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

wait till next year?

The real question is whether she’ll dial it back to get more accurate or bomb away with even more abandon. She’s one of the few LPGA players who might be affected by the new grooves rules, but on the other hand she needs to use her distance to her advantage as much as possible.

by The Constructivist on Jan 14, 2010 1:58 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

if she drops any more yardage, she’s going to be doing long drive contests with Morgan Pressel

"this ball will fit in that fairway"

by courtgolf on Jan 14, 2010 9:40 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

As For Michelle Wie

She has obviously only started to live up to her potential as a player.

Physically, she has the tools and the game to win and win often. Where she is lacking, IMO, is in the mental toughness department — and on the pro tours, that can be the difference between winning and losing.

I have long held that by skipping juniors’ and college golf, Wie missed out on learning how to master her own emotions in the heat of battle. She has instead chosen to learn all of that on the pro tours. There, she is facing accomplished golfers week after week, and despite her physical abilities, has suffered on the course because they have out-thought and out-self-controlled her. That, coupled with the fact that she was isolated socially from her peers due to her age and to some degree, her family, have made it a tough go for her so far.

2009 saw the beginnings of change for Michelle, and she should be a much stronger player this coming year. She is an intelligent young woman who is learning what she needs to know. She will continue to learn, and improve in that area.

Her only problem at this point in time aside from gaining more experience is the limitations on her time thanks to the rigor of her education at Stanford. I applaud her and her parents for her attending Stanford, as in the long run the experience will be beneficial for her. In the short term, however, it may limit what she can accomplish on the course.

by Old Man Par on Jan 12, 2010 2:55 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

about Michelle.......

Wow, 12th on Hound Dog’s list of all time rookie performances on the LPGA!!!! For that alone Nike should give her another 10 million. And my personal congratulations to the Stubmeister. A comment involving women’s golf and No “GO BIG WIEZIE!” I didn’t think you had it in you! Well done!

by pingforever on Jan 12, 2010 3:19 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

OMP,

what I have told Court in the past is pretty much in line with your thoughts…I contend she needs a strong caddie, who can help her through some of those bad on course decisions and than look out….her ball striking is back to smoothing out, her putting is picking up and now to keep her focused….The year of the BIG WIEZE…STUB

by thinker on Jan 12, 2010 3:20 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

you’re right – all those other caddies that told her to hit into the woods or bunkers, or to hit a 6’ putt 12’ past…JUST KIDDING !!!! :-) She’s had some good caddies and fired them because she couldn’t make the shot or take a correct drop.

You’re right – it’s between the ears that she needs the most work.

"this ball will fit in that fairway"

by courtgolf on Jan 12, 2010 3:32 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

She will learn — or she will play twosomes with Ty Tryon in a few years.

by Old Man Par on Jan 12, 2010 3:34 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

nah – she’ll get married to John Daly, then they will rededicate themselves with the goal of being the first married couple to play on the Ryder Cup. :-D

"this ball will fit in that fairway"

by courtgolf on Jan 12, 2010 3:35 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

LOL. Really.

Please let my boss know when you are mailing the keyboard I spit Coca Cola into. ;-)

by Old Man Par on Jan 12, 2010 3:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

pING,

IF YA REALLY ONE ONE,..just ask, you don’t have to beat around the bush…STUB

by thinker on Jan 12, 2010 3:22 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I gotta disagree about Michelle, guys...

I don’t think she’s mentally weak at all — in fact, I’d say she’s one of the toughest on any tour. If you really want to get good, fast, you have to play with players who are better than you, and that means you’re going to get it handed to you hard and often. I personally applaud her for taking the hard road; I think it’s made her better and tougher. The fact that her game went in the toilet (largely because of a poor decision to play through injuries) and she still brought it back when so many others have been crushed by one defeat (Tony Jacklin, for example) is proof positive that she is as tough as they come.

I agree that she’s been “strategically lacking” (let’s get PC here, ok?) but that’s not the same thing as mental weakness. I don’t claim to know all the ins-and-outs of Michelle’s relationship to her parents, but I think we need to remember that “good decisions come from experience, and experience comes from bad decisions.” I think she recognizes that she made some bad decisions, and that has made her willing to listen to the people who can really help her now. Give her another year, maybe two on Tour and she’ll have the strategy part down. But that personal toughness — that’s what I think her teen years have given to her, and I think that’s going to pay off big time going forward.

Mike Southern
www.ruthlessgolf.com

by Ruthless Mike on Jan 12, 2010 5:09 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

I don't buy the "learn to win" argument

Look, Ai Miyazato certainly learned to win on the JLPGA (13 times before she joined the LPGA), as did Momoko Ueda. The issue, though, is learning how to win on the LPGA. It took Ai-sama most of 4 full seasons and Momo-chan still hasn’t followed up on her non-member win as she enters her 3rd full season.

With 13 chances to win in ‘09 on the LPGA and JLPGA, Ai-sama certainly didn’t make the most of her opportunities. Bad execution at the Samsung, when she went for the closing par-5 in 2 and yanked it into the drink, opened the door for Na Yeon Choi, who had been falling apart during the middle of the final round. I’ve disagreed with those who argued it was bad strategy on Ai-sama’s part—after all, she won at Evian going for a par 5 in 2. I wouldn’t call it a lack of mental toughness, either. Sometimes a bad shot is just a bad shot.

The thing about both Michelle and Ai-sama that I like is that they’re both likely to put themselves in contention quite often in 2010. They’ll both learn how to better execute under that kind of pressure. Should be fun to watch (for those who have GC)!

by The Constructivist on Jan 13, 2010 1:24 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

MW, lack of mental toughness for sure

Add to that excuse city, O’ my wrist, O’ my akle, O’ my heat stroke, O’ my parents et al on and on. JMHO….jumpn/progolf

"pain is only weakness leaving the body"

by progolf on Jan 15, 2010 12:02 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Jumpin is just

sore, cause he made a bad bet against the BIG WIEZE for the 2K10 campaign…STUB

by thinker on Jan 15, 2010 2:38 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

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