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There are so many things that are wrong about trying to predict the winner of this Open Championship. 

First and foremost, this is the most unpredictable of the major championships.  It's unpredictable in terms of weather, conditions, and the champion.  Though time has proven that only the greats tend to win in the Open - and in spurts - there have been many great undoings in the history of this championship.  All combined, it makes the tournament my favorite major and a thing of beauty (even if the BBC won't broadcast it in HD.)

Second, Turnberry has only hosted the Open on three other occasions.  It hasn't hosted the open in fifteen years, so most of the field has never experienced it on this stage.  It will be difficult to predict how this era of golflete (golfing athlete) handles the Open Rota's version of Pebble Beach - well, vice versa.

Still, prior Opens can tell us something about what to expect.  The winning scores have been 268 twice (-12), and even par 280 once.  In good weather, Turnberry is normally for the taking.  But, with narrow fairways - widened at the last minute to 6 average meters by the R&A, up from 5 - along with deep rough and the added length, Turnberry may be a poisonous one.  Tiger Woods will not be taking his driver out of the bag much this week to compensate for his errant drives.

In other words, fairways and greens will be at a premium.  The green complexes are not particularly dicey, so accuracy to them will be key.  With only two par fives on the course, length will not be as much of an advantage as mid to long iron accuracy.

That said, there are a number of players in that company that I'd like to recommend.

First, Tiger Woods.  Three Opens - but all three have been on burnt out courses.  Tiger hasn't fared well on Carnoustie, and Turnberry has a chance to turn into that.  Of course you'll pick him, but look out.

Then there's Paddy Harrington.  He's going for the three peat.  Unlike Tiger, the Irishman has won his Opens in brutal and lush conditions.  Perhaps the memories of the last two years will help him cast aside doubts about progress with his mind-boggling swing changes.

Sergio Garcia has his target for his first major win and it is the Open.  He does well here, particularly in recent years.  Of course, stats show he is due to miss a cut - he does every fifth year.  But, if he is going to break through, it may as well be on a ball striker's course.  After all, that's what they call Sawgrass and he won there.

Then there is the similar tracks of Steve Stricker and Ben Curtis.  Both having finished 8th and 7th in each of the last two Opens, they both handle these tough conditions well.  I would expect the same again this weekend.

Also, take a look at both Ian Poulter and Hunter Mahan.  They both seem to be very confident in their games.  They both always are, but they're also proving it out on the course.  Something tells me, though, that Martin Kaymer isn't quite ready for primetime despite his two recent wins.  And something also tells me that Retief Goosen's recent Sunday squanders will not translate well to Turnberry.

Finally, a darkhorse for this week.  Who else?  Tom Watson.  If Greg Norman can turn back the clock, then surely the man behind one half of the Duel in the Sun can do the same - even on a replacement hip.