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My bags are packed - including my LoudMouth Golf pants - and I'm ready to head up to Bethpage for the Open tonight.  But, before I go, I want to go on record with my picks for the Open.

Look, Bethpage is going to be tough.  It has been very wet all along the Baltimore-New York corridor in the last two months.  Bethpage will play about as long as its max length says, even if the USGA will never have that number on the scorecard.  The course will likely favor some longer hitters, though about half of the top 12 finishers in each of the Mike Davis setup Opens have been shorties.  Keep in mind, though, that weather was not really an issue in each of the last three years.

With no place to run up the ball to the green complexes, many of which are elevated, even long hitters will have to have a high ball flight in order to succeed around Bethpage.  Yeah, hitting the fairway will matter, but the ball is more likely to stay in the fairway if it's hit there in the first place.  This means that a low ball hitter will have to be really on with their wedge play to recover from miscues created by their less-than-optimal ball flight.

That said, two guys that fit those requirements are Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson.  You know their stories, so I won't say any more about them.  One is playing on emotion.  One is playing for destiny.  Both are highly motivated.

How about some lesser knowns?  I like Angel Cabrera.  He's like Carlos Franco - hardly ever practices and rarely plays - but he actually wins.  El Pato comes through in the clutch because he doesn't feel like it is clutch.  He's having fun out there and it is translating into major championships.  Unlike Padraig Harrington, Cabrera has multiple major wins with Tiger Woods in the field and healthy.

I would always throw out Jim Furyk in the US Open given his runner up finishes in 2006 and 2007, and being champion in 2003.  As SI's Damon Hack pointed out, though, Furyk went 73-80 for a missed cut in 2002.  Don't think that will happen again, but I am tepid in my expectations that he can win.

Give Geoff Ogilvy a glance this week.  He is awfully tempting given how he has been in big game spots in the last few years.  Same with Henrik Stenson.  These match play maestros might just have enough to stare down Tiger in a one-on-one situation.

Brian Gay sure can close a tournament, but I don't see him doing it on this kind of stage.

There are a lot of Paul Casey fanboys in the media this week since he's the next guy in the World Rankings (pssh) that isn't named Woods or Mickelson.  Best finish ever in an Open is 10th.  Finish last year?  65th.  I just don't see it.  He's more likely to major Augusta his first major.

In fact, don't even give the ink to any European player for the US Open until one of them actually steps up to the plate and wins this championship.  Lee Westwood got close last year, but he was kind of out of nowhere.

Of course, the question that remains unanswered is the new one that will be asked at every US Open for the next decade.  Who is the 2009 version of Rocco Mediate?  As Rich Lerner told me, that's an impossible task to identify the next Rocco.  Instead of naming a Rocco, how about some guys that might just surprise you anyway.  Think Steve Stricker and Ernie Els.  Stricker seems to perform well in USGA championships.  Els seems to be possibly finding his game based on what I saw at Muirfield.

Enjoy the championship everyone!