Lorena Ochoa: By the Numbers & In Pictures

by Ryan Ballengee on May 8, 2009 11:17 AM EDT

Yesterday, Lorena Ochoa assumed the first round lead of the Michelob Ultra Open on the LPGA Tour with a first round 64 (-7). The first thought in my head after seeing her score was, "This thing's over." While that may not be true, I wondered what impact Lorena's first round score had on her finish in a LPGA Tour event.

I went and gathered 3 years' worth of data from LPGA.com on Lorena's finishes, scoring by round, and money. Then I went ahead and made some Excel charts, and began playing with a data visualization tool called Many Eyes. It's made by IBM and is open to the public. You past in datasets and can do all kinds of multi-dimensional data plots with it. It's a lot of fun.

From Many Eyes, I created a graphic that you can interact with that shows how Lorena finished in each event over the last three years, how much money she won, where she finished, and her first round score. The size of the bubble shows how much money she made. Roll over each bubble for info about that specific event.

Now, let's see how Lorena Ochoa scores in each round compared to how she finishes in a tournament.

Scoringfinish_medium

The steady nature of Lorena's scoring average by round - regardless of how she finishes - is staggering. When she wins, she averages 68 strokes per round for the tournament. But, in each round, that only varies by about .5 strokes either way.

When she doesn't win, she averages 2.5 strokes worse per round, but again there is very little deviation in that average by round.

The difference for Lorena between winning and a top 10 finish is 1.3 strokes per round. If she can average 69.3 strokes per round, then she will finish top 10. If she can get it to 68, then she wins.

So, if she is so consistent over each round over three years, then is there a pattern between when she wins and her opening round score?

1stroundscorewins_medium

The short answer is "not really." Believe it or not, the bulk of Ochoa's 17 wins from 2007 to now have come when she shoots 68. Almost half of her wins come when she shoots 67 or 68. So, she doesn't have to get off to a blazing start to win an event - just a good one.

UPDATE 3:40pm - Just for Court, here is the winning percentage for Lorena depending on what she shoots day one.

Round	Wins	Attempts	Rate
65	2	5	40%
66	2	5	40%
67	3	3	100%
68	5	7	71%
69	2	9	22%
70	2	5	40%
71	1	6	17%
72+	0	12	0%

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Comments

oh lord – another statistician’s wet dream. if she shoots 67 or 68 in the first round – there is no reason to play the weekend rounds. :-)

"this ball will fit in that fairway"

by courtgolf on May 8, 2009 2:10 PM EDT reply actions

Now, that’s actually a stat I did compile, but didn’t show, but I added it to the piece.

Email me any comments or questions at ryan@thegolfnewsnet.com.

by Ryan Ballengee on May 8, 2009 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Here’s one you missed – how many times when she shot 67/68 did she have the lead after the first round ? It sounds like a “magic” number this way – like she was just automatic to win. But how many times did she still have to work to get the lead after the first round ?

What impresses me about her is sort of like what Tiger did the first part of his career. When she’s playing well, she manages to put low rounds back to back…..and sometimes back to back to back. A lot of players have a low round every tournament, but never back it up with another. Lorena, when her game is on, puts them back to back, and buries the field.

"this ball will fit in that fairway"

by courtgolf on May 8, 2009 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions

That’s one I wish I had numbers on, but the LPGA stats don’t show it off hand.

Email me any comments or questions at ryan@thegolfnewsnet.com.

by Ryan Ballengee on May 8, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions

what kind of stat junkie ARE you ? You didn’t want to google the first round scoreboard of every tournament she played over the last three years ? (lol)

"this ball will fit in that fairway"

by courtgolf on May 8, 2009 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions

Who do you think you are, Hound Dog?

Truth has a well-known liberal bias.

by dianemarie on May 8, 2009 2:43 PM EDT reply actions

LOL !!

"this ball will fit in that fairway"

by courtgolf on May 8, 2009 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Hahaha, really, I just wanted to show what Many Eyes can do. I’ve been using it at the day job for a project and really love it. I think it’ll be fun to use for the occasional golf stat. The Excel stuff was just extra (as a shout out to Ken).

Email me any comments or questions at ryan@thegolfnewsnet.com.

by Ryan Ballengee on May 8, 2009 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions