A PGA Tour Ranking System That Works
We've talked here a lot about the bias in the Official World Golf Rankings, the structure of the FedEx Cup, and how to rank players and tournaments. That in mind, I started tinkering with a ranking system for the PGA Tour that could accomplish the following:
- Properly weight tournaments by their value and field depth
- Penalize players for not getting closer to the leader
- Be easy to understand
And here's my first crack at it. I gathered data from every stroke play, non-major event so far - where players finished in a tournament by both relationship to par and relationship to each other. Then, I applied my system.
First, the winner received a certain number of points in accordance with the tiers that I created in my piece that ranked the PGA Tour schedule. Ultimately, that meant that each tournament winner would get a different amount of points based on the event - not the players in the field, per se. This is because winning a tournament still matters and the ranking scale that I developed seems to be well-received - which means that the best players get into and care about the tournaments by my scale.
So, for the Players Championship, Henrik Stenson got 95 points since it was in tier 1a of my scale. Angel Cabrera would get 100 points for winning the Masters. The scale varies, and I can share that later.
Then, for each successive player that may the cut and played all of the rounds of the event, they got one less point that the person before them. In the event of ties, the points were averaged out among those players tied.
Next, I applied two penalties to everyone but the winner of the tournament. First, the field was docked by the value of the margin of victory divided by the number of rounds in the event. So, for Brian Gay's 10 shot win at the Heritage, the field cost themselves 10/4 or 2.5 points because none of them could get closer to him than that.
Also, the second penalty to the field is based upon how well the last place, cut-making player does relative to the leader. This penalty is much lighter. It's the difference in strokes between the winner and the last place player, divided by the number of rounds, and then multiplied by 1 over the number of rounds. So, if a tournament winner is separated by 30 shots from the last place player that made the cut, then the formula is:
(30/4) * 1/4
The result is a system that makes it more difficult to actually score points in the first place. Even players that make the cut do not necessarily get points. This is particularly helpful for those lowly opposite field events where the field stinks. Players shouldn't get points for making the cut in a stinker field. They should get points for finishing well in a stinker field. Compare that to the Players Championship where almost every player should (and did) get points.
Now, we sum the points together and divide that number by the number of events that they played. This gets us their average and determines the best players on the PGA Tour this season.
Without further adieu, here's my list.
POINTS PER START
| Player | Starts | Average |
| Tiger Woods | 6 | 46.53 |
| Kenny Perry | 12 | 39.02 |
| Charley Hoffman | 13 | 38.81 |
| Sean O'Hair | 11 | 37.67 |
| Geoff Ogilvy | 10 | 36.58 |
| Paul Casey | 6 | 36.25 |
| Nick Watney | 12 | 35.07 |
| Zach Johnson | 13 | 33.49 |
| Steve Stricker | 11 | 32.36 |
| Camilo Villegas | 11 | 32.05 |
| Retief Goosen | 10 | 32.04 |
| Luke Donald | 10 | 31.90 |
| Kevin Na | 13 | 30.36 |
| Robert Allenby | 10 | 30.18 |
| Ian Poulter | 8 | 30.02 |
| David Toms | 12 | 29.28 |
| Ernie Els | 10 | 28.61 |
| Lucas Glover | 12 | 28.48 |
| Dustin Johnson | 14 | 28.35 |
TOTAL POINTS
| Player | Points |
| Charley Hoffman | 504.59 |
| Kenny Perry | 468.23 |
| Zach Johnson | 435.43 |
| Nick Watney | 420.78 |
| Sean O'Hair | 414.36 |
| Dustin Johnson | 396.94 |
| Kevin Na | 394.67 |
| John Senden | 377.73 |
| Geoff Ogilvy | 365.8 |
| Jeff Klauk | 363.68 |
| Brian Davis | 362.94 |
| Davis Love III | 361.55 |
| Steve Stricker | 355.91 |
| Justin Leonard | 355.16 |
| Camilo Villegas | 352.55 |
| David Toms | 351.41 |
| Steve Marino | 348.79 |
| Lucas Glover | 341.73 |
| Brian Gay | 338.78 |
| Rory Sabbatini | 337.56 |
Taking a look at the data, you have to be wondering how Phil Mickelson isn't well up there on the list. Well, despite his solid play in a couple of events, he had lacked luster in many other starts. On the average chart, he's in the 20s.
Obviously, Tiger wouldn't make the total points leaderboard because he hasn't played enough times to make that list.
I would love to hear your thoughts on the system and whether or not it accurately reflects the players on Tour, the events they play, and the like. Let's make the perfect system!
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12 comments
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Comments
ah yes - simplicity itself. :-)
I don’t have a clue what most of that meant – but I DO find some of the top names interesting. Didn’t expect Charlie Hoffman to be up that high.
These stats are just for this year, and only for the US PGA Tour, correct ? Are you trying to do this as a world ranking system ? The rankings are based on a two year system for Ryder and President’s Cup spots – would you just add stats in for the last 24 months to get the “accurate” standings ?
I’ve never had a problem with the single Tour rankings – it’s the world rankings that I wonder about. What does your system do for that ? Paul Casey is now the #3 player in the world after winning the BMW over the weekend.
Can’t say that I’m very keen on the penalty system. One guy goes out, has a career tournament, and buries the field, and you want to penalized the rest of the field for one guy getting hot ?
Why doesn’t Tiger qualify ? He’s played 6 of 13 available weeks (he was out for the first 7 tournaments with his rehab) and will probably make the Tour minimum for events even with missing most of the first 4 months of the year.
"this ball will fit in that fairway"
by courtgolf on May 26, 2009 12:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Well, it’s a one year system so far, so I think I would go back and just add the previous year for Ryder and Pres Cup.
It’s also just one Tour, so I would have to come up with a tournament ranking system for all global events. That might get hairy, but I think it could be done. I don’t see Paul Casey as #3 in the world, but who knows.
I’m not sold on the last place penalty myself. I’m ok with the margin of victory penalty. If a guy blows out the field, he should get rewarded for it. It only turns out to be a couple of points. Even Brian Gay’s 10 shot win only got him 2.5 points over the field. The last place penalty, though, should probably be some kind of blend of the last 10 guys to make the cut or something. Some player could go out, make the cut on the number, and shoot 82-82 on the weekend and hurt the whole field as a result.
Tiger qualifies for total points, but he didn’t appear in the top 20 because he’s only played 6 times (two of which I haven’t counted yet).
Email me any comments or questions at ryan@thegolfnewsnet.com.
by Ryan Ballengee on May 26, 2009 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tiger has played 6 times (actually 5 because you said this was only stroke play events – so that removes the Match Play) – but you’ve only counted 4 of them ? Ok – you’re basing the rankings on the total points instead of the average points per start. That could be a help. If you play more, you have more opportunities to accrue points.
OK – so now comes the big question. Everybody knows that Tiger is the best of the best of the best, SIR ! What is the point of the new rankings system if it doesn’t recognize the best player ? Nobody would go for it. This might work for Fed Ex Cup rankings – but not for actual rankings of the best players.
Tiger isn’t going to alter his schedule just to satisfy a new points system – everybody knows he’s the best – he’s just going to continue to play (and win) majors and regular tournaments and not even give a second thought to the points. (IMHO, that is)
"this ball will fit in that fairway"
by courtgolf on May 26, 2009 12:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think I would use the average points per start to rank the players with some kind of minimum like 10 events over the course of a season. That seems most fair in saying who the best player is any time they tee it up. The total points would just say who scores the most over a season, a la the FedEx Cup.
In that case, the system works because Tiger is in first by an average of 7 points per event. Would likely be about the same after I throw the masters in there.
Email me any comments or questions at ryan@thegolfnewsnet.com.
by Ryan Ballengee on May 26, 2009 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
now you’re saying that Tiger WILL be the highest ranked player… but not until somewhere around July or even August because he won’t have 10 starts until then ? THAT won’t draw fire from the “media”.
The Fed Ex Cup still screws everything up because the media and many in the general public constantly try to equate the Fed Ex Cup playoffs and champion with the #1 ranking in the world – and that just isn’t the case. Fed Ex is a one season race for points to get into a poorly devised set of playoffs that give 1, 2, or if we’re lucky, as many as 5 out of 30 in the tournament a shot at the big prize. Might as well take the top 8 and play a round robin for 4 spots in a skins game, topped off with the Big Break’s glass breaking and wall challenges mixed in.
"this ball will fit in that fairway"
by courtgolf on May 26, 2009 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m saying that Tiger won’t lead the total points because he hasn’t played enough. But, I would tell you that Tiger is the best player on Tour this year because he leads the list in points per start. That’s the category I care about most.
Email me any comments or questions at ryan@thegolfnewsnet.com.
by Ryan Ballengee on May 26, 2009 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
but that’s the same basic thing as the world rankings right now.
"this ball will fit in that fairway"
by courtgolf on May 26, 2009 1:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Except the system can’t be gamed like the OWGR. :)
Email me any comments or questions at ryan@thegolfnewsnet.com.
by Ryan Ballengee on May 26, 2009 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
lol – give them time…give them time…
"this ball will fit in that fairway"
by courtgolf on May 26, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The current OWGR system is basically flawless
except for the ranking of the various tours. Right now, OWGR gives 24 points for both regular European and United States events and pays down to 27th place. I am not a U.S. Tour snob, but this tour is superior to the Euro tour and should receive more points (36?, 32?) and award more places down the list.
The factor where players are ‘charged’ for forty tournaments, even if they have only played twenty-two is adequate punishment. I say if you can accumulate the most points in the shortest amount of time, it doesn’t make you a bad person. Tiger’s actual ranking score is 17.12, not 9.41 through last week’s tournament…
by One-Eyed Golfer Guy on May 27, 2009 8:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, those are the two things that I don’t like about the system, so I pretty much removed them for mine by making the ranking system of tournaments almost completely arbitrary :)
Email me any comments or questions at ryan@thegolfnewsnet.com.
by Ryan Ballengee on May 27, 2009 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you used viewer popularity as a benchmark I believe that Charles Barkley should be somewhere near the top of that list.
Frankie C
http://overthetopgolf.com
http://iwantcharlesbarkley.blogspot.com
by OverTheTopGolf on May 27, 2009 6:24 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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