You Should Have Known Tiger Woods Was Going to Lose on Sunday

Plain and simple, Tiger Woods was never going to win the Players Championship this week.  Wasn't happening.  Not even really sure why anyone thought he would win.  The facts told you he wasn't going to win.

Woods has one career win at Sawgrass in a dozen starts there - the second lowest winning percentage for Woods in any single tournament.   (Riviera is #1 and he doesn't play there anymore.)

Woods has been hitting a very low percentage of fairways, even relative to his paltry career numbers.  The data shows that fairways and greens are what tend to win at Sawgrass.  Woods was T62 in fairways hit and T40 in greens in regulation.  The winner Henrik Stenson?  T10 and T12, respectively.

At no time in Woods' comeback of seven tournaments has he shown four consecutive solid rounds.  Woods remarked that his first round 71 was the "worst possible score he could have shot."  He was right.  He only made four feet of putts all day.  It was evident there and then that this would not be Woods' week.

All of the writing was on the wall.  Yet, when Woods managed to back into the final group on Sunday, everyone appeared ready to coronate Woods.  Often times, people like to ignore the facts.

Again, Tiger Woods is returning from major knee surgery.  It appears pretty clear from video evidence and the scorecard that Woods is still trying to become comfortable.  He has tweaked his swing in a way that he hopes will allow him to take advantage of finally having a healthy knee - one that has been operated on three times.  To have confidence in that kind of swing takes a lot of mental and physical training.  He has a month between now and the US Open to figure those two things out for Bethpage.

Despite clear flaws, anyone that is questioning Tiger Woods' relationship with Hank Haney or his performance to date is out of their minds.  As the One Eyed Golfer points out, Woods has undergone swing changes in the past ('98 and '04) and still had seasons that most players would kill to have as a career.  This season, Woods has finished top ten in every stroke play event and has a win.  That's better than his 2004 season - arguably his worst as a professional.

Let's gain some perspective here.  Over the course of Woods' comeback, he began very confident about his game.

When Woods came back, he said that he came back because he felt that he could win.  He lost in the second round of the match play event. 

At Augusta, Woods said he thought he almost won the tournament with a "band-aid swing."  That was quite a bit of hyperbole.

But, he has grown more reticent about confidence and his swing since then.  He let David Feherty call him a loser at Quail Hollow and joke about it.

After the Players, he was quite honest that he has a lot of work to do if he wants to defend his US Open title.

If anything, that win at Bay Hill may have given him a false sense of security going into Augusta.  The Masters shot it down and he realizes that he is not entirely there yet.  In fact, he is downright open with his flaws.  Now, with a realistic assessment of his game and his standing in the global golf scene, Woods can prepare for the US Open.  In that regard, losing may have been the best thing to happen to him.