Internet Writer of the Year: Woods? 18 Majors? Nah.

If you're confused by the headline, it might be in a couple of ways. 

First, you might be wondering why I'm referring to myself as the Internet Writer of the Year.  Well, I'm not.  I'm referring to The Times' John Hopkins.  He was named the Internet Writer of the Year by the Britain-based Sports Journalists' Association.  Just another writers' club that I'm not allowed into, I guess.

Second, why would Hopkins make such a claim with that kind of confidence?  In his own words, the IWOTY.  (And Jack Nicklaus'.)

My view is constant on this and always has been. I will not put any money on Woods even equalling Nicklaus's record.

What? I hear you exclaim. You mean that the man who at 33 has won 14 major championships will not win four more? The player who can will his ball into the hole better than any previous golfer ever has - as he proved in a tournament in Florida on the last Sunday in March when he made up a five-stroke deficit in the last round and holed for a birdie on the 72nd hole to win by one stroke - might only win three more major championships in his career and maybe not even that many? That Woods, who will be 34 at the end of this year, cannot match or comfortably exceed the record of a man who won his 16th and 17th major championships when he was 40 and his 18th and last at 46?

Nicklaus continued: "You guys are all so willing to hand it to Tiger: '[he's the] greatest player ever', like it's already over ... I'm just saying the kid is amazing and I'll be the first to congratulate him, but doesn't he actually have to do it first?"

I don't think Hopkins is trying to be brash or controversial here.  He's just playing the percentages with his opinion. 

My percentages say that Woods probably has another good decade in him.  That's 40 majors.  He will only have to win 5 to beat Nicklaus' mark.  That is 12.5% of the majors he enters during a decade in which his edge over the field will get smaller.

To this point in his career as a professional, Woods has entered 48 majors.  He has won 14.  That is a 29.2% winning percentage.

In other words, Woods would have to win at less than half of the pace that he has set over the course of his professional career.  I'm not saying that he'll do it for sure, but in that context, reaching Jack's mark seems a whole lot easier.