The Best of the LPGA: August 2008 Edition
With the number of international players in the top 20 growing from 12 to 17 between February's and my latest ranking at Mostly Harmless (now a top 45!), not to mention the percentage of ranked players who grew up in non-English-dominant countries rising from 45% to 58%, it's hard to argue that the widespread perception of international dominance on the LPGA Tour is unfounded. Even though Cristie Kerr's win last week brings 2 Americans into the top 5 for the first time since the start of the season, just about everyone else who was born in the U.S.A. has been struggling. But you know what? So have 100% of the Japanese and Chinese players on tour, 75% of the Taiwanese, and so on. It's just not easy to excel at the highest levels of women's professional golf. Just ask the world #1 and #1A.
(BTW, I get these figures by combining the most recent results from the Rolex Rankings, the Golfweek/Sagarin Performance Index, the LPGA Official Money List, and Hound Dog's Top 30. We'll revisit them at the end of October.)
The chase pack is closing on the world #1, but she's not going down without a fight:
1. Lorena Ochoa: #1 money ($2.38M), #1 RR (18.60), #1 GSPI (67.70), #1 HD. Only a player of Ochoa's stature could be said to be "struggling" since my last ranking, but that's what happens when you go from winnng almost every tournament you enter to having trouble contending. Still, she dominates almost every major statistical category, often by a wide margin, and has made enough since June alone to rank just outside the top 50 on the money list, which is to say that in less than 2 months she's done better than 130 of her competitors have done all season. She is so due that I predict multiple wins for her down the stretch.
Even as the chase pack is closing, it's also fragmenting. There are only 2 other players in the top 5 in all 4 systems and only 4 in the top 10:
2. Annika Sorenstam: #2 money ($1.59M), #2 RR (10.79), #4 GSPI (69.05), #2 HD. Like Hound Dog, I can't picture her getting LPGA victory #73. I'll go further and worry publicly that my prediction that she'd end the season at #5 may have been a bit too generous. Does she have anything left in the tank for the home stretch? She skipped the Midwest swing to prepare for the European swing. Will she even play September's Southern swing? And would even that extended a rest help her in October and November?
3. Paula Creamer: #3 money ($1.48M), #5 RR (8.62), #2 GSPI (68.85), #3 HD. I'll tell you, I was tempted to put Creamer ahead of Sorenstam. She's already ahead in top 10 percentage and greens in regulation rate--and right behind in scoring average, birdies per round rate, and rounds under par percentage. Do you realize she's had only 4 finishes outside the top 16 all season? (Sorenstam's had 7.)
4. Ya Ni Tseng: #4 money ($1.41M), #3 RR (8.79), #8 GSPI (69.53), #4 HD. At the same time, if Tseng had turned any of her 4 silvers and 1 bronze this season into just 1 gold, I would have strongly considered making her my #2. Her disappointing missed cut at the Safeway Classic is only her 6th finish outside the top 16. With her nagging triceps problem, the LPGA's late-summer vacation couldn't have come at a better time for her physically. She still could end the season at #2. As great as Creamer's been playing this season, I think Tseng is the only 1 on tour who has a real chance at taking Player of the Year away from Ochoa. She's the only other player on tour averaging above 4 birdies per round, so she has the gunslinger's mentality that's needed to take on the challenge. And she's recently joined the elite group of players that Lorena mentions by name, following a similar compliment from Annika.
5. Cristie Kerr: #9 money ($882.3K), #6 RR (6.42), #6 GSPI (69.22), #5 HD. Amazing what a win will do for your year, isn't it? With it, she jumped back to where she started the season after dropping to #9 in June. But with 10 straight finishes of 21st or better (and only 8 worse than 16th all season), she's punched her ticket for the ADT Championship, given herself a great shot at her 5th straight million-dollar season, and established herself as 1 of the hottest players on tour. It'll be very interesting to see how the multiple weeks off in August and September will affect her momentum.
Don't look now, but the trio with a trio of top 10s is due to break out:
6. Suzann Pettersen: #11 money ($868.9K), #4 RR (8.78), #3 GSPI (68.94), #9 HD. You know, I'm sure she's not terribly happy with her results this season, but I have to say I've been impressed with her mental toughness. Her worst finish all season has been a T34 at the LPGA Championship--it's her only finish outside the top 30. So even when she hasn't had her A-game, she's proven that her B-game is pretty damn good. If she can get half as hot at the end of this season as she did at the end of 2007, she'll not only make it 2 years in a row that the Class of 2003 has a pair of million-dollar winners, but also give herself a chance to catch Annika.
7. Na Yeon Choi: #8 money ($1.00M), #27 RR (3.56), #7 GSPI (69.44), #6 HD. Although she recently matched her worst finish on the LPGA from the 1st event of the year at the Canadian Women's Open (T32) and hasn't medalled as often as Rookie of the Year race leader Tseng, she could still finish at the top of her class. She's got a better top 10 rate, after all, and is hanging with Tseng in just about every other category. This could be the best ROY race in LPGA history....
8. Seon Hwa Lee: #7 money ($1.06M), #10 RR (5.22), #13 GSPI (70.40), #7 HD. Talk about the Mostly Harmless reverse jinx: Lee has gotten each of her wins this season soon after I complained about her short game in April and her inconsistency in June. So it's time to complain about her hangover since that NW Arkansas victory. Time to snap out of it, Seon Hwa!
The rest of the chase pack has fallen back a bit and can be found in the top 10 in only 2 of the 4 systems (and/or in the top 20 in all):
9. Jeong Jang: #10 money ($874.3K), #11 RR (4.87), #9 GSPI (69.89), #11 HD. Ouch--her taking that break to rest her wrist that I recommended back in June hasn't helped. Expect her to have surgery in the off-season. But also look for her to break the million-dollar mark this season. That's how tough she is.
10. Inbee Park: #5 money ($1.10M), #12 RR (4.74), #33 GSPI (71.02), #8 HD. You know, it's sad to see that the U.S. Women's Open jinx is even stronger than the Mostly Harmless reverse jinx. Or is it? Only time will tell if this attempt to trigger the latter can overcome the former. And if noting that she had a worse start to the season and a similar rough patch in the middle weakens the latter too much. How about this? I think the GSPI is a more accurate indicator of her chances the rest of the season than the other systems.
11. Helen Alfredsson: #6 money ($1.10M), #9 RR (5.43), #49 GSPI (71.58), #17 HD. You know, I just love to see the Mostly Harmless reverse jinx in action. In June I wrote, "don't expect to see her back here in August." Instead, she moves from #30 almost into my top 10! Still, I'd be shocked to see her finish in my top 20. There. She'll probably win the ADT Championship now.
12. Eun-Hee Ji: #12 money ($819.8K), #15 RR (4.57), #15 GSPI (70.46), #12 HD. Had a great Midwest swing and European swing, but cooled off up north, so the LPGA's summer break is coming at a good time for her. I would not be surprised to see her win again this season, perhaps even in the Southern swing. Nor would I be surprised to see her pass fellow Super Soph Inbee Park on the money list by season's end. What can I say? She reminds me of Seon Hwa Lee.
13. Hee-Won Han: #17 money ($683.8K), #19 RR (4.21), #10 GSPI (69.95), #13 HD. Now that's more like it! If she can continue the pace she's been setting of late--4 top 10s in her last 5 events--she'll validate her pre-season ranking of #8 from me.
14. Karrie Webb: #14 money ($711.9K), #8 RR (6.05), #11 GSPI (70.01), #14 HD. Hey, I finally got a call right back in June: "Don't expect her to remain in the top 10 next ranking. There are too many hungry young guns behind her playing better and more consistent golf than she has been the past 2 years." If she doesn't turn it around soon, my pre-season #21 ranking will prove to be prescient.
15. Angela Park: #13 money ($784.9K), #13 RR (4.68), #17 GSPI (70.60), #16 HD. Movin' on up! 4 top 6s in your last 7 events will do that for you.
Surprisingly, there's only 1 player with top 20s in 3 of the 4 systems.
16. Jee Young Lee: #18 money ($561.4K), #17 RR (4.43), #18 GSPI (70.61), #21 HD. The good news: she has 8 top 20s in her last 10 events. The bad news: she's missed the cut twice and has no top 10s in that same span. Come on, Jee Young!
And there are only a couple of golfers with a pair of top 20s:
17. Song-Hee Kim: #15 money ($709.6K), #44 RR (2.56), #29 GSPI (70.94), #15 HD. Has the opportunity to turn a great season into a fantastic one if she can recapture that mid-season form. Taking a rest before the European swing didn't help her, so we'll have to see how she handles these 2 weeks off after a very good and a solid finish on the Northern swing. Here's hoping the Super Soph heats up in the South.
18. Karen Stupples: #25 money ($522.7K), #33 RR (3.20), #12 GSPI (70.32), #18 HD. Cooling off fast, but less fast than those behind her.
FanPosts are written by Waggle Room members. Viewpoints expressed do not necessarily reflect those of WaggleRoom.com and its editor, Ryan Ballengee. The Waggle Room member whose byline appears with the FanPost is solely responsible for its content.
0 recs |
12
comments
Read Related
Comments
thanks!
Since I just found this site, this is my first time reading your rankings…very good stuff! Thanks! I would love to see Annika post one more win, but I think you might be right about her not having enough in her tank – I’m hoping for some fall inspiration for her.
by red tees on Aug 29, 2008 8:02 AM EDT 0 recs
me too
Wouldn’t it be a great story if she ran the table on her way out? I want to see her play at her 2001-2005 superhuman level down the stretch so we get one last chance to see how today’s and tomorrow’s stars match up against her at her best! When she was on that one week, she dominated as badly as Ochoa has all season. But I get the feeling the field has caught both of them in the second third of the season.
BTW, here’s a pop quiz for those who want to go to my top 45. How many Americans are on the list?
by The Constructivist on Aug 29, 2008 10:09 AM EDT 0 recs
american by birth or citizenship
There are 12 by birth but you can add Angela Park and Annika Sorenstam as naturalized citizens.
by dianemarie on Aug 29, 2008 11:13 AM EDT 0 recs
I get a diff result
13 by birth (including Kim, Park, Prammanasudh, and Lindley) and 3 naturalized citizens (Kung, too).
by The Constructivist on
Aug 30, 2008 8:57 AM EDT
up
0 recs
Tseng
OK – prediction time – since Annika is going away, that will move Creamer and Tseng up to 2 and 3 respectively. (Am I good or what ?)
I don’t get the feeling that Paula Creamer is #1 material – a great golfer, but more like a Tom Kite with a gazillion 2nd’s on his resume with a win or two every year.
Lorena Ochoa has shown that she can be explosive and go on win streaks – but she can just as quickly go into a tailspin. Her hot streak has her a mile ahead of everybody in ranking points.
BUT – I watch Yani Tseng – BIG game, great attitude, and has already posted multiple wins…She’s just 18 and has a lot to learn – but I think she has the game to run down Ochoa and maybe take the #1 spot. It might not be next year, but how about Tseng in 2010 ?
"this ball will fit in that fairway"
by courtgolf on Aug 29, 2008 11:22 AM EDT 0 recs
totally agree on Tseng
She’s already ahead of Jee Young Lee, whom Hound Dog and I still have very high hopes for, in wins on U.S. soil and majors, even if she hasn’t been able to close out her 2nd win just yet.
As for Creamer, she’s only 22 and is going to get better. Until the LPGA stops playing short-and medium-length courses, she’ll always be a threat for multiple wins in a season. A couple of Sundays wth slightly different (playoff with Sorenstam) and very different (U.S. Women’s Open) results and she’d be the clear #2 already, within easy reach of POY.
Consider where Seon Hwa Lee, still the best of the Young Guns, Creamer, and Ochoa stood back in June:
Seon Hwa Lee, the top player so far in the class of 2006, hasn’t won a major, has 3 wins (.042), 8 top 3s (.111), 20 top 10s (.278), 39 top 20s (.542), and 68 made cuts (.944) in 72 starts.
Paula Creamer, the most dominant player of the class of 2005, hasn’t won a major, has 6 wins (.068), 21 top 3s (.239), 43 top 10s (.489), 65 top 20s (.739), and 85 made cuts (.966) in 88 starts.
Lorena Ochoa, the best of the class of 2003 (and most other classes in LPGA history!), has won 2 majors (.077 [in career starts in majors]), has 23 wins (.177), 54 top 3s (.415), 96 top 10s (.738), 116 top 20s (.892), and 130 made cuts (.970) in 134 starts.
So Creamer is pretty amazing, but Ochoa is incredible. That really is some gap to make up.
by The Constructivist on
Aug 30, 2008 9:07 AM EDT
up
0 recs
good point...
…on the short and medium length courses keeping Creamer in the win column. I just see Tseng as a player with the potential to be as explosive as Ochoa – something I don’t see with Creamer.
"this ball will fit in that fairway"
by courtgolf on
Aug 30, 2008 9:40 PM EDT
up
0 recs
look at her win near the end of last season
Now that was explosive. She’s not going to go that low more than a couple of times a season, but she’s going through the same learning curve with regard to being in contention that Lorena did a few years back. Once she figures that out, watch out. Tseng is precocious, but she has some learning to do, too, when it comes to closing the deal. Lee knows how to close the deal but needs to put herself in contention more often.
Jee Young Lee has the same explosiveness as Ochoa and Tseng, but less golf experience. If she doesn’t get discouraged, she could be in the running soon, too.
by The Constructivist on Sep 2, 2008 1:32 AM EDT 0 recs
good word
“precocious” – that’s a good word for her. she’ll be maturing her game over the next couple of years – then watch out. She’s going to give Ochoa a run for her money. I really like her mental toughness. She doesn’t like making mistakes, like her chipping woes a few weeks back that cost her a very high finish and maybe a win, and she gives the impression that she’ll be working on improving. Maybe it was her answer to the question “what would you be doing if you weren’t playing golf ?” Her answer was “playing professional pool.” Kid’s a hustler.
Yep – forgot about Lee. There is some good competition coming on the LPGA.
"this ball will fit in that fairway"
by courtgolf on
Sep 2, 2008 9:58 AM EDT
up
0 recs
yah, loved that answer
Have you seen her rookie blogs? She reminds me of Neal Stephenson’s Y.T. from Snow Crash
a teeny bit.
by The Constructivist on
Sep 2, 2008 2:12 PM EDT
up
0 recs
not in a while
I read the rookie blogs once in a while. Haven’t really kept up with them much this year.
It’s a bit shallow, but I hope she can get her facial skin smoothed out. She seems to have a personality that will go well with advertising, but her acne isn’t going get her in a lot of ads.
"this ball will fit in that fairway"
by courtgolf on
Sep 2, 2008 2:25 PM EDT
up
0 recs









