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Low Amateur

My answer to the "who's going to win the U.S. Women's Open" poll down below is "Suzann Pettersen." She drove the ball beautifully last week at Wegmans, long and straight, the perfect combination for U.S. Open conditions. While she didn't win - stumbled down the stretch - she's playing well. I think she's ready for a bounce-back.

Or maybe Lorena Ochoa will win by 8. But I'm going with Pettersen.

As for sleepers ... let's list Inbee Park, Jane Park and Stacy Lewis. My definition of "sleeper" requires the player to really be under the radar. If Inbee or Jane won, well, it wouldn't surprise me and it might not surprise you, but it would probably surprise most casual fans. Both are looking for the first wins, and Lewis is playing her first event as a professional. Jee Young Lee, Jeong Jang and Angela Stanford have been mentioned elsewhere as sleeper candidates, but I don't consider any of those three to be "sleepers" (one of them is a major championship winner!). Ji Yai Shin doesn't qualify either. Hard to be a sleeper when you're in the Top 10 in the world, although Shin winning would certainly surprise most casual fans.

The real sleepers in the field are the amateurs, 27 of them in this U.S. Women's Open.  

Here is how amateurs have fared at the Women's Open in recent years:

2007
23 amateurs
4 made cut
Low amateur: Jennifer Song and Jennie Lee (tie), 39th

2006
29 amateurs
4 made cut
Low amateur: Amanda Blumenherst and Jane Park (tie), 10th

With the exception of 2004, I can't find cut information for years prior to 2006, so don't have the total number of amateurs playing. But here are the numbers for amateurs making the cut:

2005
6 amateurs made cut
Low amateur: Morgan Pressel and Brittany Lang (tie), 2nd

2004
16 amateurs
4 made cut
Low amateur: Michelle Wie and Paula Creamer (tie), 13th

2003
8 amateurs made cut
Low amateur: Aree Song, 5th

2002
2 amateurs made cut
Low Amateur: Angela Jerman, 51st

2001
4 amateurs made cut
Low amateur: Candy Hanneman, 30th

2000
3 amateurs made cut
Low amateur: Naree Song, 40th

I put the over-under of amateurs making the cut in 2008 at five. It's a good crop. But which of the amateurs is going to be low amateur? Here are the 27 amateurs in the 2008 field (in no particular order):

Alison Walshe, Maria Jose Uribe, Kimberly Kim, Victoria Tanco, Emily Powers, Erynne Lee, Mina Harigae, Sydnee Michaels, Jennifer Song, Tiffany Lua, Cyd Okino, Jessica Korda, Alexis Thompson, Kristen Park, Joanne Lee, Ha-Na Jang, Lauren Doughtie, Kathleen Ekey, Jenny Shin, Angela Oh, Courtney Ellenbogen, Amanda Blumenherst, Jennie Lee, Paola Moreno, Cydney Clanton, Sarah Almond, Tara Goedeken

I'm going to pick five who I think will make the cut: Amanda Blumenherst, Kimberly Kim, Sydnee Michaels, Angela Oh and Jennifer Song. But I put the biggest "names" into the poll:

Poll
Who will be low amateur at the 2008 U.S. Women's Open?
Amanda Blumenherst
4 votes
Mina Harigae
1 votes
Kimberly Kim
4 votes
Jennifer Song
3 votes
Alexis Thompson
1 votes
Maria Jose Uribe
2 votes
Other
4 votes

19 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 13 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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go Blu!

Wonder if the “other” vote was for Walshe or Lua? Otherwise you hit all the names that came to mind.

by The Constructivist on Jun 24, 2008 6:43 PM EDT reply actions  

that's a lot of amateurs

27 amateurs in the Women’s US Open – as opposed to the Men’s Open with only 9 amateurs this year. I’ve been sitting here trying to figure out if this is a good thing or a so-so thing for the women. That many amateurs who make it through qualifying doesn’t say much for the depth and level of play from the professionals.

On the other hand – a good number of these amateurs are going to make it to the LPGA with a better than even chance of being successful.

So – is this just a sign that the women’s game isn’t all that deep right now – but the LPGA is going to need to dig a new pool pretty soon ? Or are the lower ranks of the LPGA just not good enough to beat some really good amateurs and they are going to be phased out in the very near future ?

"this ball will fit in that fairway"

by courtgolf on Jun 24, 2008 8:05 PM EDT reply actions  

look at the odds

I wonder if anyone keeps stats on how many men and women have the required handicap to attempt to qualify at the local level for their respective Opens? My guess is at least 10x more men and maybe 100x…. With that many more men able to go for it, you’d expect to see more male amateurs making it, so yeah, the male pros in the 100-to-300-range in the world rankings are definitely putting up a better fight than their female counterparts. Given how few female amateurs make the cut, the top 100 are pretty darn good, but after that….

BUT, check out that fact that former JLPGA star Chieko Amanuma qualified. Sure, in 2001 she won 5 events there and was 3rd on their money list, but since 2007 she’s been struggling with her game so much she’s mostly been playing on Japan’s Step-Up Tour in Japan this season. And yet she qualified whereas the LET’s Yuki Sakurai (just a bit more than half her age!) failed—go figure. Aiko Yoshida, who’s spent a good portion of her short career on the Step-Up Tour, also made it. Imagine if the JLPGA’s best were to attempt qualifying! Odds are you’d have at least 15 fewer spots for domestic qualifiers.

So I’d qualify your point by suggesting that fewer top women’s pros from outside the U.S. try to qualify for the Open than their mail counterparts. We’d have to find that elusive list of those who tried local and regional qualifying to verify this, so this is just a guess. What do you think?

by The Constructivist on Jun 25, 2008 4:19 AM EDT reply actions  

on any given day...

Keep in mind that the majority of these amateurs beat out the pros in a 36-hole one-day shootout. I don’t think you can take the one day’s results and make a definitive statement on the quality of any group of players.

by hound dog on Jun 25, 2008 6:38 AM EDT reply actions  

It's the demographics

Men’s golf is much deeper than women’s golf, at every level, but especially the farther away from the top level you look. And it’s all about the numbers: There are roughly 21 million male golfers in the U.S., 6 million female golfers. And despite the best efforts of Korea and Japan, I suspect that discrepancy is larger on a global scale. (Although it’s probably also true that the number of female participants is growing faster than the number of male participants.)

But more germane to the question of so many amateurs making it into the Women’s Open compared to the men’s Open are these numbers: There were 8,300 entries for the men’s Open this year, 1,200 for the women’s.

So any young amateur who meets the maximum handicap requirement is automatically looking at much better odds of getting into the Women’s Open through qualifying because she has many fewer competitors to get past. Which is why so many younger, less experienced players (even 12 year olds, 15 year olds, 17 year olds) make it into the women’s open.

by Mulligan Stu on Jun 25, 2008 9:50 AM EDT reply actions  

how I did miss that one?

Assuming that those men and women are fighting for the same number of spots in their respective Opens, a female amateur has seven times the chance of a male before she even tees off. Great point, Stu.

by hound dog on Jun 25, 2008 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

and ??

To quote that famous Texas law man, Sheriff Buford T Justice – “what do the $@# @&$% Germans got to do with it ??” :-)

"this ball will fit in that fairway"

by courtgolf on Jun 25, 2008 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

men vs women

The USGA expands the number of women eligible to enter US Open qualifying by raising the handicap. Women with a handicap of 4.4 or lower are eligible. I’m sure the handicap number has dropped some over the last few years, but I can’t find the history.

Men, on the other hand, have to have a handicap of 1.4 or lower. It wasn’t too many years ago that applicants with handicaps just under 3 were allowed to apply. The men’s game has exploded over the last 10 years, forcing the USGA to lower the number nearly every year to keep the number of eligible applicants at a managable level.

I still think it’s amazing that 27 amateurs can make it into the women’s Open. The girls taking up the game are getting better as the years go along. Equipment changes have helped kids get better at a younger age, and the lighter equipment today makes it easier for the smaller women to keep up with the bigger women. I wonder how soon we will see a lot more junior girls skip college to turn pro.

"this ball will fit in that fairway"

by courtgolf on Jun 25, 2008 12:41 PM EDT reply actions  

increase not likely

The number of junior golfers who turn pro early will depend on the number who do so very successfully. Some pre-college girls who have turned pro come from families with the financial resources to get the best coaching (Ledbetter) for their child, e.g., Paula Creamer. But the fact is that most women who turn pro grow up in AJGA and country clubs where social pressure is to get a scholarship at a school with a good golf program (Duke, UCLA, USC, ASU, etc.). Even golfers born outside the US try to get into US schools.

by dianemarie on Jun 25, 2008 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

"early"

D – how are you defining “turning pro early” ? I kind of goofed and didn’t define what I was talking about. By “early”, I was talking about turning to the dark side….errr…professional at 18 and hitting the road and skipping college. I wasn’t talking about younger than 18 since the LPGA has that age restriction.

But it does offer another question – will the LPGA do what women’s tennis did and allow girls under 18 to get their cards ? I sure hope not.

"this ball will fit in that fairway"

by courtgolf on Jun 25, 2008 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

skipping college

CG—I was just referring to skipping college. The current standard seems to be 18 is early, 20-something is average for those joining the tour.

The Futures tour has had some 17-year olds. Last year Mindy Kim was 17. This year Vicky Hurst started on tour at 17 (I think she’s had a b’day since). The LPGA wouldn’t move from niche sport to big time by allowing those younger than 18 to be members and there might very well be negative consequences— I don’t think it will happen.

by dianemarie on Jun 25, 2008 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

from the Open fact sheet

ENTRIES – There were 1,236 entries accepted for the 2008 U.S. Women’s Open, the fifth consecutive year the number of entries surpassed 1,000. The record of 1,251 entries was set in 2007 for the Women’s Open at Pine Needles Lodge & Golf Club in Southern Pines, N.C.

Would love to know the handicaps of those who made it, eh? And of those who finished well…

by The Constructivist on Jun 25, 2008 3:54 PM EDT reply actions  

Through the magic of GHIN ...

... handicaps for those few listed in GHIN:

Kathleen Ekey +3.8
Angela Oh +3.3
Mina Harigae +2.9
Joanne Lee +2.6
Alison Walshe, +2.5
Tara Goedeken +1.9
Cydney Clanton +1.7
Kimberly Kim, +1.5
Emily Powers +0.7
Cyd Okino +0.5

by Mulligan Stu on Jun 25, 2008 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

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