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On Wie, TV, and the LPGA's Future

(Bumped up from the diaries -- good topic for discussion.)

Has anyone read or heard anything more recent on the state of the LPGA's negotiations with U.S. tv networks than Jon Snow's piece in Sports Business Journal?  Has anyone been tracking the LPGA's ratings this season in a more systematic way than Steve DiMeglio in USAToday?

I ask because I'm wondering if there's still a Michelle Wie effect when it comes to tv ratings and whether Lorena Ochoa's quest for 5 wins in 5 straight starts has changed the kinds of equations Brandon Tucker's commentariat were making earlier this season.  My position has always been that the LPGA doesn't need Michelle Wie to take off in the same way women's tennis did in the Williams sisters era, but I'm willing to follow the evidence on this.

I'm also wondering if we're in a "best of times/worst of times" moment in LPGA history.  In his U.S. Women's Open preview, Mark Craig of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune offers some crucial historical perspective on LPGA purses, sponsorships, endorsements, and tv deals, as does Ron Sirak in this older piece.  For a different kind of historical perspective, check out this golden oldie from Hound Dog!  But he has also been sounding warning bells about the future of various LPGA events.  Mulligan Stu has been following this, of course, in several key posts--and I've recently responded.  For an optimistic take on the LPGA's future, see Ron Kroichick's piece in the San Francisco Chronicle.  I've been optimistic so long, though, I'm beginning to lose patience.  What say ye, golfosphere?

(More at Mostly Harmless.)

FanPosts are written by Waggle Room members. Viewpoints expressed do not necessarily reflect those of WaggleRoom.com and its editor, Mulligan Stu. The Waggle Room member whose byline appears with the FanPost is solely responsible for its content.

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I wouldn't hold my breath...
...on a lot of information on the TV deal.  If they keep things close to the vest in this negotiation as they have the last couple of contracts, we won't hear much until things are pretty much finalized.

Personally, I hope they go in without any Wie expectations.  She has consistently turned her nose up to playing on the LPGA since she was 15, but accepted sponsor's exemptions from the tour.  Maybe a bonus situation IF she decides to "take pity" on the LPGA and allow her grandness to be a part of women's golf, and it actually has an affect on ratings.

As odd as it sounds, I think Julie Inkster's comment about women golfers depending on their caddies so much exposes part of the reason a lot of people don't watch the women's game.  If you have to depend on a caddie to help you practice your short game, to give you yardages, make club choices, and allign you for your shots, then read greens and line you up for your putts - the player is pretty much a semi-fallible machine - not an athlete/golfer.

"this ball will fit in that fairway"

by courtgolf on May 7, 2008 9:17 AM EDT   0 recs

Good stuff
Thanks for all those links, Con, many of which I hadn't seen before. Very interesting article by the Sports Business Journal on the difficulties in getting the LPGA a proper TV deal; and interesting historical perspective from the Star-Tribune writer (although he did erroneously give Betsy Rawls Mickey Wright's win totals).

I think the LPGA desperately needs Michelle Wie to regain her form, play full time, and win a lot. As pointed out in one of the articles, ratings go up when Wie (well, when the good Wie) is the focus of the broadcast. A lot of people don't like that, but it's a fact. Just as it's a fact that on the PGA Tour, there are good ratings with Tiger and not-as-good ratings without him.

Annika wasn't able to move the bar a whole lot, and I haven't seen any evidence that Ochoa has a huge effect either (although that will likely change as her overall wonderfulness becomes more and more well-known). Paula Creamer, with her looks and personality, could have an explosive effect if she managed to get to where Ochoa is now (hey, Tiger wouldn't move the bar nearly as much if he had Scott Hoch's looks and personality).

But in the short term, Wie is the LPGA's best hope. It's in the numbers. And that's why Wie and her posse got away with so much for so long. The Tour recognizes it.

Short of Wie, the LPGA can only keep doing what it's been doing: partnering with other organizations to grow women's golf from the toddlers up; instituting new and better marketing plans to showcase its golfers; working hard to bring in better-known and more deeply pocketed sponsors. A slow process, but one that might boost the LPGA past the NHL, at least, in the next few years.

And the LPGA is now deeply committed to the Asian markets, and making more money there could help with marketing here.

by Mulligan Stu on May 7, 2008 9:19 AM EDT   0 recs

too many eggs in one basket...
...Stu, you are most likely correct that Michelle Wie is the best hope for a ratings bonanza for the LPGA - but if they put too much hope into her actually turning into a mature adult and golfer, they will be laying a foundation in sand.  

The PGA is going to make a lot of money for 20 years or so with Tiger Woods - but when he calls it quits (who knows - it could be the day after he wins his 20th major) - the magic carpet will come out from under the feet of the PGA Tour - sponsors will disappear and money will dry up because Tiger isn't around.

Tiger proved his worth within a few months as a professional and hasn't slowed down since.

Right now, people are putting that same sort of hope, and that's all it is, in Michelle Wie - and she isn't ANYwhere near what Tiger Woods is. She was a really tall, cute 13 year old who did a cute thing and actually got close with the men a couple of times - and she played like a fearless teenager. (until, that is, the men got tired of her act and just started beating her the way they should have from the start)  She was an empty headed teenager who knew next to nothing about her game, yet had the world by the tail.  While Woods was stockpiling knowledge and skill...and WINNING, she was pounding drivers for the cameras, giggling teenager-ese for microphones, and staking a claim to fame in some fantasy world that included Masters wins.

Wie was a draw as a cute teenager with a big driver and big dreams - but the luster is coming off.  She has a big bank account - but no scoreboard - not a good combination for long term success for herself OR the LPGA Tour.

"this ball will fit in that fairway"

by courtgolf on May 7, 2008 9:48 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I agree
Wie is nothing more than a "hope," and she's looking pretty shaky right now even as that.

What the LPGA needs to do is keep on doing what it's doing -- building slowly. And if a Wie explosion (or perhaps a Creamer explosion or an as-yet-under-of-player explosion) happens, that will be a bonus.

I just don't see that the LPGA has done much wrong - any huge mistakes, anyway - in its efforts to expand its reach. Slow, steady growth is the best the tour can expect ... but it can hope for Wie or someone else to come along and produce a Tiger bump.

by Mulligan Stu on May 7, 2008 10:57 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I would go further...
...and plan for a Wie-less future.  There are probably a couple dozen teenagers better than her playing regularly on tours around the world and already on the LPGA.  If people thought the impact of Se Ri Pak stopped at the borders of South Korea, they'll have another think coming in the next 10 years.  There are now more top Taiwanese than Japanese golfers on tour--Amy Hung is hanging in there, Candie Kung is making a comeback, Teresa Lu has made a quantum leap in her game, and Ya Ni Tseng is outplaying all the more seasoned rookies from the KLPGA and JLPGA at this early point in the season.  I'm already speculating (or is it fantasizing?) that Sakura Yokomine, Miho Koga, and Miki Saiki will consider '08 Q-School.  And if Stacy Lewis, Amanda Blumenhurst, Vicky Hurst, Mi Jung Hur, and Ji-Yai Shin live up to expectations, the 2009 rookie class could be the best yet....  Even if Wie did somehow get into it, I'm not sure I'd put her in its top 5.

So women's golf's future is assured globally with or without Wie, and if the U.S. doesn't catch on, well, that's our problem, isn't it?  And if some of the Young Guns from the classes of 2006 to 2008 join the Big 4 of Ochoa, Sorenstam, Creamer, and Pettersen regularly--that is, start taking wins away from them--at some point that slow, steady growth we're talking about might actually accelerate.

The wild card in all this is if in the next 2 years Wie elevates her game to join this already established mix, then we could see explosive growth for the LPGA.  But I can't imagine it happening in less time, MS's 2-win prediction for her notwithstanding.

by The Constructivist on May 7, 2008 11:41 AM EDT   0 recs

Hey!

"MS's 2-win prediction for her notwithstanding."

You're not supposed to remember that!

Unless she actually does win. In which case, I'll remind you.

by Mulligan Stu on May 7, 2008 11:56 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

move out Biv...
...ok - tell Carolyn Bivens to clean out her desk...the three of us are moving in to lead the LPGA into the promised land !! :-D
"this ball will fit in that fairway"

by courtgolf on May 7, 2008 12:42 PM EDT   0 recs

we got competition!
from Hound Dog at his blog and Ryan Ballengee at GNN--no time to link, sorry!

by The Constructivist on May 8, 2008 10:43 AM EDT   0 recs

not a problem...
...we'll always need lackies...err...interns to do research.  They did some pretty good work in those posts. (lol)(JUST kidding, dog)

They both make the good point/warning to stay as far away from Versus as possible.  The NHL has pretty much been unfindable to most of the US because it's not a part of basic cable.

"this ball will fit in that fairway"

by courtgolf on May 8, 2008 4:29 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

durnit!
So the fact the the LPGA competes ratings-wise with the NHL is b/c they have a bad cable deal?  Uh oh!

by The Constructivist on May 9, 2008 12:05 PM EDT   0 recs

say what ??
Con - the NHL signed with Versus and they virtually disappeared because so many cable and satellite carriers do not offer Versus, or it is a part time channel - it had nothing to do with the contract.

I'd hate for the LPGA to have the same problem.  TGC and ESPN are much easier to find.

"this ball will fit in that fairway"

by courtgolf on May 9, 2008 3:08 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

bad wording
sorry, what you said is what I meant--what I was trying to get at is that the NHL's bad ratings are due to where they are on the dial (or where they're not).  so to say that the LPGA is close to out-ratings the NHL, as various people have been pointing out, isn't saying much at all, is it?

Yah, the LPGA should avoid Vs. like the plague then.  I think ESPN is looking better and better.

by The Constructivist on May 14, 2008 12:20 PM EDT   0 recs

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