On Wie, TV, and the LPGA's Future

...on a lot of information on the TV deal.  If they keep things close to the vest in this negotiation as they have the last couple of contracts, we won't hear much until things are pretty much finalized.

Personally, I hope they go in without any Wie expectations.  She has consistently turned her nose up to playing on the LPGA since she was 15, but accepted sponsor's exemptions from the tour.  Maybe a bonus situation IF she decides to "take pity" on the LPGA and allow her grandness to be a part of women's golf, and it actually has an affect on ratings.

As odd as it sounds, I think Julie Inkster's comment about women golfers depending on their caddies so much exposes part of the reason a lot of people don't watch the women's game.  If you have to depend on a caddie to help you practice your short game, to give you yardages, make club choices, and allign you for your shots, then read greens and line you up for your putts - the player is pretty much a semi-fallible machine - not an athlete/golfer.

Thanks for all those links, Con, many of which I hadn't seen before. Very interesting article by the Sports Business Journal on the difficulties in getting the LPGA a proper TV deal; and interesting historical perspective from the Star-Tribune writer (although he did erroneously give Betsy Rawls Mickey Wright's win totals).

I think the LPGA desperately needs Michelle Wie to regain her form, play full time, and win a lot. As pointed out in one of the articles, ratings go up when Wie (well, when the good Wie) is the focus of the broadcast. A lot of people don't like that, but it's a fact. Just as it's a fact that on the PGA Tour, there are good ratings with Tiger and not-as-good ratings without him.

Annika wasn't able to move the bar a whole lot, and I haven't seen any evidence that Ochoa has a huge effect either (although that will likely change as her overall wonderfulness becomes more and more well-known). Paula Creamer, with her looks and personality, could have an explosive effect if she managed to get to where Ochoa is now (hey, Tiger wouldn't move the bar nearly as much if he had Scott Hoch's looks and personality).

But in the short term, Wie is the LPGA's best hope. It's in the numbers. And that's why Wie and her posse got away with so much for so long. The Tour recognizes it.

Short of Wie, the LPGA can only keep doing what it's been doing: partnering with other organizations to grow women's golf from the toddlers up; instituting new and better marketing plans to showcase its golfers; working hard to bring in better-known and more deeply pocketed sponsors. A slow process, but one that might boost the LPGA past the NHL, at least, in the next few years.

And the LPGA is now deeply committed to the Asian markets, and making more money there could help with marketing here.

...and plan for a Wie-less future.  There are probably a couple dozen teenagers better than her playing regularly on tours around the world and already on the LPGA.  If people thought the impact of Se Ri Pak stopped at the borders of South Korea, they'll have another think coming in the next 10 years.  There are now more top Taiwanese than Japanese golfers on tour--Amy Hung is hanging in there, Candie Kung is making a comeback, Teresa Lu has made a quantum leap in her game, and Ya Ni Tseng is outplaying all the more seasoned rookies from the KLPGA and JLPGA at this early point in the season.  I'm already speculating (or is it fantasizing?) that Sakura Yokomine, Miho Koga, and Miki Saiki will consider '08 Q-School.  And if Stacy Lewis, Amanda Blumenhurst, Vicky Hurst, Mi Jung Hur, and Ji-Yai Shin live up to expectations, the 2009 rookie class could be the best yet....  Even if Wie did somehow get into it, I'm not sure I'd put her in its top 5.

So women's golf's future is assured globally with or without Wie, and if the U.S. doesn't catch on, well, that's our problem, isn't it?  And if some of the Young Guns from the classes of 2006 to 2008 join the Big 4 of Ochoa, Sorenstam, Creamer, and Pettersen regularly--that is, start taking wins away from them--at some point that slow, steady growth we're talking about might actually accelerate.

The wild card in all this is if in the next 2 years Wie elevates her game to join this already established mix, then we could see explosive growth for the LPGA.  But I can't imagine it happening in less time, MS's 2-win prediction for her notwithstanding.

...ok - tell Carolyn Bivens to clean out her desk...the three of us are moving in to lead the LPGA into the promised land !! :-D

from Hound Dog at his blog and Ryan Ballengee at GNN--no time to link, sorry!

So the fact the the LPGA competes ratings-wise with the NHL is b/c they have a bad cable deal?  Uh oh!

sorry, what you said is what I meant--what I was trying to get at is that the NHL's bad ratings are due to where they are on the dial (or where they're not).  so to say that the LPGA is close to out-ratings the NHL, as various people have been pointing out, isn't saying much at all, is it?

Yah, the LPGA should avoid Vs. like the plague then.  I think ESPN is looking better and better.