Top Junior Mints, May 2008

There's been a lot of movement among the regulars from the Class of 2006, one of the strongest rookie classes in LPGA history, so far this season.  Unfortunately, their top 3 players have yet to hit their strides, but we've seen the return to great play of one of their 3 slumping stars along with the emergence of some new potential contenders.  So how do their careers stack up?

Simply the Best

1. Seon Hwa Lee: It's definitely problems with her putting that account for her so-so start to the season--she's ranked in the mid-70s in both short-grass stats, about 50 spots worse than any of the key stats I track below, and a far cry from her rookie season when she was one of the best on the tour. So she could turn it around any week now.

2. Morgan Pressel: Just when I was ready to keep her below Jee Young Lee in the rankings, she interrupts a missed cut streak by coming this close to getting her 2nd career win. The pair are so neck-and-neck in career stats that it comes down to Morgan's major vs. Jelly's made-cut rate. I know both major ranking systems as well as Hound Dog's and my own (which combines them) have it the other way around, but I'm moving Pressel back to #2.

3. Jee Young Lee: If she weren't having such an inconsistent season, she would have stayed ahead of Pressel, major or not. I mean, what can you do when she breaks her top-10 streak at 2 with a T55 at the Sybase 2 weeks ago? Hope she worked on her putting in her week off, as she's clearly missing too many par saves and probably 3-putting too many greens she hits in regulation. Her percentage of rounds under par is way down from her previous 2 seasons and her putting stats are the obvious culprit--it's not like her driving accuracy is that different from her average in her first 2 years on tour (although if she ever were to improve in that area, watch out!).

The Contenders

4. Ai Miyazato: It's been one-step-forward-two-steps-back for Ai-chan this season: miss 2 cuts, get a top 20 at the start of the season; then, after a long dry spell, follow up another top 20 with a MC. There always seems to be 1 high round per tournament that pulls her down. On the bright side, she's hitting more greens and lowering her scoring average, but she needs the birdies to start dropping to return to the LPGA's elite.

5. Brittany Lang: She's making the most money and hitting the most greens of anyone in her very talented class, so it's no surprise that she's been racking up top 20s and top 10s this season. Her runner-up finish at the Sybase was no fluke. And she's poised to pass Ai-chan by the end of July.

6. Julieta Granada: Followed up her first top 20 in what feels like forever (but really was about 5 months) with 2 straight missed cuts. If she keeps that kind of pattern up, she'll get passed by Jee Young Lee on the career money list by season's end, despite that $1M paycheck for her sole victory.

Quantum Leap Candidates

7. Teresa Lu: Seems to have been inspired by the great play of fellow Taiwanese stars Ya Ni Tseng and Candie Kung. Whatever it is, she's my new top candidate for getting that breakthrough win that most of her classmates are still waiting for!

8. Meaghan Francella: Injuries and illnesses have taken their toll on her game for almost the past year, so I'm demoting her from the contenders list, even though she already has a win. While she's still on a better pace than Bae in her career stats, she is in danger of getting passed, as her Rolex Rankings lead is shrinking and Golfweek/Sagarin Performance Index deficit is growing.

9. Kyeong Bae: Would already have passed Francella if she weren't struggling this season. She's finally started having decent results--and making more birdies--the past few events, so I have high hopes for her despite demoting her from the contenders category this ranking.

10. Sun Young Yoo: Has the lowest scoring average and highest birdie rate in her class this season. Would have moved even further up these rankings if she had gotten her first win last weekend--she came that close to it!

11. Minea Blomqvist: Starting to harness her talent and take advantage of her hot weeks, but still incredibly inconsistent. She has a Jee Young Lee-like game, though, so there's no reason she shouldn't remain the top Euro in her class and move up the rankings the rest of the season.

12. Linda Wessberg: Her transition to full-time play on the LPGA has been a learning process, but she'll be the better player and tougher competitor for her current struggles. Once she settles down, she'll go back to giving Blomqvist some real competition for top Euro in class.

13. Allison Fouch: Too soon to tell whether this Futures Tour graduate has the staying power to build upon her great start to the season, but the signs are promising.

14. H.J. Choi: Let's hope her top 10 at the Sybase (which would have been yet another missed cut if the tournament organizers hadn't erased Friday's waterlogged scores!) is a sign of things to come for a player who not that long ago was my top candidate for that breakthrough win.

15. Karin Sjodin: What has happened to her this season? If she keeps this up, Katie Futcher has a chance to pass her! She'd better decide fast if she wants her LPGA career to be judged against Blomqvist and Wessberg's or Reis and Stahle's....

So there you have it.  As always, I cover the entire class and show my work over at Mostly Harmless.