Ochoa at the Kraft Nabisco Championship

Lorena Ochoa seems like the overwhelming favorite this week at the Kraft Nabisco Championship. There's almost a sense of inevitability about her winning this tournament.

But should there be? I'm a little skeptical. Not of the idea that Ochoa will win - I'll predict a Lorena victory just like nearly everyone else is - but I don't think we'll see an Ochoa runaway.

Ochoa has history both good and bad at the Kraft Nabisco Championship. There are memories of blown opportunities that might crop up down the stretch. There are dangerous holes - most notably No. 18 - to threaten a player who still hasn't proved that she's completely over a vulnerability to the blowup, to the meltdown.

Here are Ochoa's results in the KNC:

• 
  
• 2007: tied for 10th; 69-71-77-72--289
  
• 2006: second, lost in playoff; 62-71-74-72--279
  
• 2005: tied for 35th; 76-75-73-71--295
  
• 2004: tied for eighth; 67-76-74-67--284
  
• 2003: third; 71-70-74-68--283
  
• 2002: eighth; 75-69-71-70--285 (amateur)
  
• 2001: tied for 21st; 72-71-74-73--290 (amateur)
  

In 2007, Ochoa entered Kraft Nabisco Championship off a win at the Safeway International, and as the heavy favorite. Then she blew up with a 77 in the third round.

In 2006, she tied the 18-hole scoring record in women's majors with an opening 62 - four strokes ahead of Michelle Wie, at least six strokes ahead of everyone - but couldn't seal the deal. Although she got into a playoff and wound up second - her best finish in this tournament - that year probably ranks as a major disappointment to her.

But having said all that .... yea, she's probably going to win.