Only Five Golfers Can Win the FedEx Cup

There are 30 golfers in the field at the Tour Championship competing for the inaugural FedEx Cup title.

Scratch that. There are only five players competing for the FedEx Cup title. The other 25 are mathematically eliminated.

And among the five who are alive in the points race, only three - Tiger Woods, Steve Stricker and Phil Mickelson - have good shots at the points title.

I guess after all the moaning about Woods and Mickelson skipping "playoff" tournaments, it's winding up being a good thing they did. Otherwise, the Tour Championship might be meaningless for the FedEx Cup race. Woods or Mickelson might already have the title locked up.

Here are the five golfers who are mathematically alive in the FedEx race, along with their projected points following Tiger's win at the BMW Championship:

1. Tiger Woods, 112,733
   
2. Steve Stricker, 109,600
   
3. Phil Mickelson, 108,612
   
4. Rory Sabbatini, 103,587
   
5. K.J. Choi, 103,100

K.J. Choi

• 
  
• He must win the Tour Championship
  
• Woods must finish somewhere around 25th or lower
  
• Stricker must finish no higher than fourth
  
• Mickelson must finish no higher than third
  

Rory Sabbatini

• 
  
• He must win the Tour Championship
  
• Woods must finish somewhere around 12th or lower
  
• Stricker and Mickelson each must finish no higher than third
  

It's possible that Mickelson could win in Atlanta and not win the points title - if it's Tiger who finishes second (Woods would beat Mickelson by 20 points in that scenario).

So for Phil to win, he must win the tournament and have Woods finish no higher than third.

If Stricker wins the Tour Championship, he wins the FedEx Cup no matter what Tiger does.

Tiger, on the other hand, could finish last and still win the FedEx trophy, so long as Stricker finishes no higher than fourth and Mickelson finishes no higher than third.

There are also scenarios by which Stricker and Mickelson could win the FedEx without winning the Tour Championship - if they finished at least third or second, respectively, and Woods finished at or very near the bottom - but Woods is certainly the prohibitive favorite for the FedEx Cup.