And the U.S. Open Winner Is ...

I'll get right to the point: My pick to win the U.S. Open is Tiger Woods. Tiger is my guy for two reasons:

1. Oakmont puts pressure on every facet of a golfer's game.
2. I believe Phil Mickelson won't be a factor because I believe his wrist is more of a problem than he and his team have so far admitted.

People have been trying tease out of Oakmont the qualities it demands of a golfer, and one of those qualities is hitting fairways. And that's something Woods doesn't do as much of as he'd like. But Oakmont also demands length, so the short hitters who do hit the fairways have their own problems to deal with.

Oakmont demands a thinking-man's round of golf, and nobody thinks on the course, or grinds on the course, better than Woods. Which is why he's already said he'll be hitting 3-wood more often than driver off the tee. Because he does have the length to club down in an attempt to keep it in the short grass, yet still get enough distance.

Oakmont demands precise irons; you have to keep the ball below the hole. Woods is one of the best with his irons. Oakmont demands a fantastic putter, and you can argue that Woods is the best putter of all-time. Oakmont demands strong bunker play and short game, and Tiger has that.

Oakmont demands it all, and when a course demands it all, I think of the golfers who stand out above almost all others. Golfers whose talent puts them on another level. There are two of those: Tiger and Phil. And Phil is hurting, so my pick is Tiger.

If it's not Tiger, then who?

Jim Furyk: Driving accuracy, strong (although overrated) putting, plenty of patience.

Padraig Harrington: Paddy is such a slow player. And Oakmont rounds will probably be very, very slow. Just seems to fit.

Ernie Els: Nobody is talking about him. He's got good feelings about Oakmont, and has shown signs of life lately.

Retief Goosen: Seems to thrive in conditions that wear down others.

Zach Johnson: No, I wouldn't even be thinking of him had he not won the Masters. But he did win the Masters, and then won again after that. Good driver, good putter. Showed at Augusta he's got the patience and the intellect.

These guys won't be winning

Adam Scott: If he can't get it done on Sunday in Memphis, he ain't gonna get it done on Sunday at Oakmont. He'll win a few majors in years to come, but he'll have to break through somewhere else.

Rory Sabbatini: Love his bring-it-on attitude, which you need at Oakmont. But the rounds will likely be glacial in speed, which will drive him crazy.

Sergio Garcia: Forget about it. No chance. Sergio will be lucky to make the cut.

Sleepers

Sean O'Hair: Pretty good combination of distance and accuracy. More of one with the other than most golfers in the field.

Jose Maria Olazabal: Love his iron play and his putting at Oakmont. Ollie's problem is keeping the ball in the fairway, which is a big problem. He doesn't have Tiger's distance, so he can't club down on many holes. But if he has a good driving week, he'll be there at the end.

Anthony Kim: Just a hunch, and probably a bad one. But I like him, and he got through his sectional by winning an 11-man playoff that included a hole-out from a bunker just to remain in the playoff. Likely just wishful thinking because of the story this would make.

Also see:
Waggle Room diarists' picks
Beat writers and bloggers picks